Thurgau vs Basel Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Lost

U6.5 1.28

Confidence72%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%

Full game

1X2WonBaselodds up 2.92Confidence 51%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderLostU6.5odds down 1.28Confidence 72%
HandicapLostThurgau +1.5Confidence 66%
Winner (incl. OT)WonBaselodds up 2.22Confidence 54%
Double chanceWonBasel or drawodds up 1.85Confidence 69%
Draw no betWonBaselodds up 2.75Confidence 61%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.12Confidence 84%

1st period

1st period 1X2LostDraw2.55Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonU1.5odds down 1.70Confidence 58%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the odds drifted 7% since they opened; the odds drifted 6% since they opened; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Thurgau 12

Basel

Final 2–5

Total goalsTotal 3 Actual 7

Draw after 60 minDraw 22% Decided in regulation

BAS to winTo win 57% BAS won

Score details

Correct scoreLost1–2After 60 min2–54%chance
1st period correct scoreLost0–01st period0–124%chance
Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 5 goals28%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 1-2
By period 0-0, 0-1, 1-1
Likeliest 1-2 (4%), 2-3 (4%)

Season so far

This season

Season

Season record4-4-18-1-2

Home / road split1-1-12-1-2

StreakL1W1

Rest6 days6 days

Goals for2.13.5

Goals against2.92.8

In the standings6th2nd

Head-to-head

Thurgau 32

Basel

Thurgau won three of the last five meetings

Goals a gameGoals 6.0 THU 3.0 · BAS 3.0

Over 5.5 goalsOver 5.5 2 of 5 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 3 of 5 2 in overtime · 1 in a shootout

Sep 19, 2026: Basel 4, Thurgau 2.
Feb 15, 2026: Thurgau 5, Basel 4, after overtime.
Feb 5, 2026: Basel 2, Thurgau 3, after a shootout.
Dec 27, 2025: Basel 3, Thurgau 2.
Oct 28, 2025: Basel 2, Thurgau 3, after overtime.

Last five games

Thurgau 3-2-0

Loss, 0–2 at Visp, Oct 17. Odds: Visp 1.75, Thurgau 3.57.
Win, 4–1 at Arosa, Oct 13. Odds: Arosa 4.07, Thurgau 1.57.
Win, 2–1 against GCK Lions, after overtime, Oct 10. Odds: Thurgau 1.64, GCK Lions 3.75.
Win, 4–2 at Bellinzona Snakes, Oct 6.
Loss, 2–7 against Sierre, Oct 3.

Basel 3-1-1

Win, 2–1 against Bellinzona Snakes, Oct 17. Odds: Basel 1.46, Bellinzona 4.90.
Overtime loss, 3–4 at GCK Lions, after a shootout, Oct 13. Odds: GCK Lions 2.88, Basel 1.91.
Win, 5–2 against Arosa, Oct 10. Odds: Basel 1.15, Arosa 10.00.
Loss, 6–9 at Sierre, Oct 6.
Win, 1–0 against Visp, after overtime, Oct 3.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period0-1

17:59 Goal Basel: Serkins D. assists: Kummer D. 0-1

2nd period2-3

08:13 Goal Basel: Schaub J. assists: Serkins D., Kummer D. 0-2
09:41 Goal Basel: Blaser J. assists: Liniger L. 0-3
09:41 Goalie change Thurgau: Neuenschwander E. replaces Simmchen S.
11:50 Goal PPG Basel: Brugger S. assists: Barbei G. 0-4
14:31 Goal PPG Thurgau: Binias D. assists: Bohler N. 1-4
18:59 Goal Thurgau: Etter K. assists: Okabe Z. 2-4

3rd period0-1

00:48 Goal Basel: Fuss N. assists: Barbei G. 2-5

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

Odds moved: the odds on Thurgau dropped from 1.66 to 1.42 since they were first published.
In goal: Simmchen S. for Thurgau (5-4-1 in the last 10 starts), Henauer A. for Basel (6-2-2 in the last 10 starts).
3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Thurgau.
6.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
6th vs 2nd in the Swiss League standings.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (THU)	1.77	1.70	Shortened
1X2: X (draw)	4.05	4.35	Drifted
1X2: 2 (BAS)	3.49	3.55	Drifted
Over/Under line	5.5	5.5	No change
Handicap THU	−0.5	−0.5	No change

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

Swiss League standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Sierre	14	13	1	0	37	1.321	75	32	+43
2	Basel	14	10	2	2	31	1.107	51	40	+11
3	Visp	12	9	0	3	28	1.167	47	18	+29
4	Olten	14	8	6	0	24	.857	60	49	+11
5	La Chaux-de-Fonds	13	8	5	0	23	.885	53	40	+13
6	Thurgau	14	6	7	1	17	.607	36	48	−12
7	Chur	14	5	8	1	16	.571	44	49	−5
8	Bellinzona Snakes	14	4	8	2	13	.464	33	48	−15
9	Arosa	14	3	11	0	9	.321	25	73	−48
10	GCK Lions	15	3	10	2	9	.300	33	60	−27

Playoffs: Quarter-finals

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Thurgau vs Basel prediction