Thurgau vs Chur prediction
Chance to win · 39% and 39% in regulation
Neuenschwander E.StartedSV 95.5% · GAA 1.00 · 5-4-1
Neckar M.Started3-6-1All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Full game
- 1X2LostChurodds up 2.25Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO3.5odds down 1.42Confidence 70%
- HandicapWonThurgau +1.51.27Confidence 70%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostChurodds up 1.77Confidence 51%
- Double chanceLostChur or drawodds up 1.49Confidence 66%
- Draw no betLostChurodds up 1.88Confidence 51%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.12Confidence 85%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostDrawodds down 2.48Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostU2.5odds up 1.11Confidence 79%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the odds drifted 8% since they opened; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Thurgau 2–3
Chur Score details
- Correct scoreLost2–3After 60 min5–44%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–01st period3–224%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 5 goals28%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 2-3
- By period 0-0, 1-1, 1-2
- Likeliest 2-3 (4%), 3-4 (2%), 4-5 (1%)
Season so far
This seasonThurgau
Chur
Head-to-head
Thurgau 2–3
Chur - Sep 22, 2026: Chur 2, Thurgau 3, after a shootout.
- Feb 19, 2026: Thurgau 2, Chur 7.
- Jan 3, 2026: Thurgau 3, Chur 0.
- Dec 2, 2025: Chur 3, Thurgau 0.
- Oct 31, 2025: Chur 3, Thurgau 2.
Last five games
Thurgau
3-2-0 - Loss, 2–5 against Basel, Oct 24. Odds: Thurgau 1.70, Basel 3.55.
- Loss, 0–2 at Visp, Oct 17. Odds: Visp 1.75, Thurgau 3.57.
- Win, 4–1 at Arosa, Oct 13. Odds: Arosa 4.07, Thurgau 1.57.
- Win, 2–1 against GCK Lions, after overtime, Oct 10. Odds: Thurgau 1.64, GCK Lions 3.75.
- Win, 4–2 at Bellinzona Snakes, Oct 6.
Chur
2-3-0 - Loss, 0–5 at Olten, Oct 24. Odds: Olten 2.35, Chur 2.25.
- Win, 6–3 against GCK Lions, Oct 17. Odds: Chur 1.76, GCK Lions 3.33.
- Loss, 2–3 at Visp, Oct 13. Odds: Visp 1.63, Chur 3.96.
- Loss, 2–5 against Sierre, Oct 10. Odds: Chur 4.45, Sierre 1.52.
- Win, 5–2 at La Chaux-de-Fonds, Oct 6.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period3-2
- 07:12 Goal PPG Thurgau: Binias D. assists: Marchand L., Bohler N. 1-0
- 11:01 Goal PPG Thurgau: Haas K. assists: Ljunggren D., Murer F. 2-0
- 12:49 Goal PPG Chur: Melnalksnis R. assists: Aeschlimann M., Rentsch N. 2-1
- 14:08 Goal Chur: Bont K. assists: Hammerer G., Baer S. 2-2
- 15:29 Goal Thurgau: Okabe Z. assists: Ljunggren D., Truog L. C. 3-2
2nd period1-0
- 13:52 Goal Thurgau: Ljunggren D. assists: Lekic R., Truog L. C. 4-2
3rd period1-2
- 00:42 Goal PPG Chur: Jenni T. assists: Smons S. 4-3
- 08:41 Goal PPG Thurgau: Derungs I. assists: Marchand L., Binias D. 5-3
- 13:18 Goal Chur: Melnalksnis R. assists: Guggenheim B., Jenni T. 5-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- In goal: Neuenschwander E. for Thurgau (5-4-1 in the last 10 starts), Neckar M. for Chur (3-6-1 in the last 10 starts).
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Chur.
- 5.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 4.5.
- 6th vs 7th in the Swiss League standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (THU) | 2.40 | 2.25 | Shortened |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.05 | 4.10 | Drifted |
| 1X2: 2 (CHU) | 2.30 | 2.45 | Drifted |
| Over/Under line | 4.5 | 4.5 | No change |
| Handicap THU | +0.5 | −0.5 | Line moved |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
Swiss League standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sierre |
14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 1.321 | 75 | 32 | +43 |
| 2 |  Basel |
14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1.107 | 51 | 40 | +11 |
| 3 |  Visp |
12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 1.167 | 47 | 18 | +29 |
| 4 |  Olten |
14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 24 | .857 | 60 | 49 | +11 |
| 5 |  La Chaux-de-Fonds |
13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 23 | .885 | 53 | 40 | +13 |
| 6 | Thurgau |
14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 17 | .607 | 36 | 48 | −12 |
| 7 | Chur |
14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 16 | .571 | 44 | 49 | −5 |
| 8 |  Bellinzona Snakes |
14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 13 | .464 | 33 | 48 | −15 |
| 9 |  Arosa |
14 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9 | .321 | 25 | 73 | −48 |
| 10 |  GCK Lions |
15 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 9 | .300 | 33 | 60 | −27 |
- Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Thurgau host Chur in the Swiss League on Thursday, October 29, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.