Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres prediction
Toronto Maple Leafs 4–, Buffalo Sabres 5
AOT
Puck drop 19:00 ET
1X2 2.271X2 2.50
Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON) · USAScotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
OT
TOR
2
2
0
0
BUF
1
1
2
1
50%Toronto win · 39% in regulationTOR
Overtime or shootout · 22%OT / SO 22%
50%Buffalo win · 39% in regulationBUF
Chance to win · 39% and 39% in regulation
Bobrovsky S.StartedSV 88.4% · GAA 3.20 · 3-6-1
Luukkonen U.StartedSV 86.8% · GAA 3.30 · 3-5-2
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Over/Under
Lost
U6.5
odds up 1.65
Confidence54%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 60%Full game
- 1X2LostMaple Leafsodds up 2.28Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderLostU6.5odds up 1.65Confidence 54%
- HandicapWonSabres +1.5odds down 1.36Confidence 67%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostMaple Leafs1.82Confidence 51%
- Double chanceWonMaple Leafs or drawodds up 1.44Confidence 66%
- Draw no betPushMaple Leafsodds up 1.82Confidence 51%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.05Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonMaple Leafs2.65Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.63Confidence 56%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Maple Leafs 3–2
Sabres
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 9
Draw after 60 minDraw
22%
Went to overtime
Toronto to winTo win
50%
BUF won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min4–43%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period2–17%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 1st & 2nd31%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (3%), 2-1 (2%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Toronto Maple Leafs
Buffalo Sabres
Toronto Maple Leafs
Buffalo Sabres
Season recordToronto Maple Leafs 3-3-1Buffalo Sabres 3-3-1
Home / road splitToronto Maple Leafs 2-2-0Buffalo Sabres 0-1-1
StreakToronto Maple Leafs L1Buffalo Sabres L1
RestToronto Maple Leafs 1 dayBuffalo Sabres 1 day
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 3.4Buffalo Sabres 2.7
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.3Buffalo Sabres 3.7
In the standingsToronto Maple Leafs 7thBuffalo Sabres 6th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameToronto Maple Leafs −0.5Buffalo Sabres −0.5
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 3.2Buffalo Sabres 3.2
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.7Buffalo Sabres 3.7
Shots on goalToronto Maple Leafs 26.0Buffalo Sabres 29.3
Shots againstToronto Maple Leafs 30.1Buffalo Sabres 23.9
Shooting %Toronto Maple Leafs 12.3%Buffalo Sabres 10.9%
Save %Toronto Maple Leafs 88.7%Buffalo Sabres 84.9%
Power-play %Toronto Maple Leafs 28.1%Buffalo Sabres 14.6%
Penalty kill %Toronto Maple Leafs 88.6%Buffalo Sabres 66.7%
Faceoff %Toronto Maple Leafs 51.2%Buffalo Sabres 49.0%
Penalty minutesToronto Maple Leafs 7.0Buffalo Sabres 10.8
HitsToronto Maple Leafs 20.9Buffalo Sabres 20.1
Blocked shotsToronto Maple Leafs 12.6Buffalo Sabres 15.9
Per game · TOR at home, BUF away
Goal differential per gameToronto Maple Leafs −1.1Buffalo Sabres +1.5
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 2.6Buffalo Sabres 4.2
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.7Buffalo Sabres 2.7
Shots on goalToronto Maple Leafs 26.0Buffalo Sabres 27.3
Shots againstToronto Maple Leafs 29.2Buffalo Sabres 25.9
Shooting %Toronto Maple Leafs 10.0%Buffalo Sabres 15.4%
Save %Toronto Maple Leafs 88.4%Buffalo Sabres 90.3%
Power-play %Toronto Maple Leafs 16.7%Buffalo Sabres 11.1%
Penalty kill %Toronto Maple Leafs 79.4%Buffalo Sabres 83.6%
Faceoff %Toronto Maple Leafs 52.2%Buffalo Sabres 47.8%
Penalty minutesToronto Maple Leafs 7.5Buffalo Sabres 15.3
HitsToronto Maple Leafs 21.2Buffalo Sabres 23.2
Blocked shotsToronto Maple Leafs 13.3Buffalo Sabres 11.4
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Maple Leafs 2–3
Sabres
Goals a gameGoals
7.0
TOR 3.4 · BUF 3.6
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
3 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
2 of 5
1 in overtime · 1 in a shootout
- Mar 14, 2026: Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2, after a shootout.
- Jan 27, 2026: Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 7.
- Oct 25, 2025: Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 3, after overtime.
- Oct 24, 2025: Buffalo Sabres 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3.
- Apr 15, 2025: Buffalo Sabres 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 4.
Last five games
Maple Leafs
2-2-1 - Loss, 4–5 at Utah Mammoth, Oct 13. Odds: Mammoth 2.01, Maple Leafs 3.12.
- Win, 6–3 at Colorado Avalanche, Oct 10. Odds: Avalanche 1.86, Maple Leafs 3.25.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 at Vegas Golden Knights, after a shootout, Oct 8.
- Win, 5–4 against Nashville Predators, after overtime, Oct 6.
- Loss, 2–3 against Ottawa Senators, Oct 3.
Sabres
2-2-1 - Overtime loss, 3–4 at Montreal Canadiens, after a shootout, Oct 13. Odds: Canadiens 2.06, Sabres 3.09.
- Win, 5–3 against Florida Panthers, Oct 12. Odds: Sabres 2.40, Panthers 2.60.
- Loss, 1–4 against Utah Mammoth, Oct 10. Odds: Sabres 2.25, Mammoth 2.65.
- Loss, 0–4 against Dallas Stars, Oct 8.
- Win, 3–2 against Minnesota Wild, after overtime, Oct 6.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-1
- 02:24 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews A. assists: Roslovic J. 1-0
- 03:35 Goal Buffalo Sabres: Quinn J. assists: Benson Z., Metsa Z. 1-1
- 12:32 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Carrick S. Hooking
- 13:10 Goal PPG Toronto Maple Leafs: Marchenko K. assists: Tavares J., Raddysh D. 2-1
- 18:12 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Gilbert D. High sticking
- 18:12 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Carrick S. Roughing
- 18:12 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Ekman-Larsson O. Roughing
2nd period2-1
- 02:41 Goal Buffalo Sabres: Quinn J. assists: Ostlund N., Samuelsson M. 2-2
- 11:13 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Marchenko K. assists: Tavares J. 3-2
- 14:35 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Ekman-Larsson O. Holding
- 15:53 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Stecher T. Fighting
- 15:53 5 min Buffalo Sabres: Quinn J. Fighting
- 16:51 Goal PPG Toronto Maple Leafs: Marchenko K. assists: Sissons C., Cowan E. 4-2
- 18:07 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Rielly M. Hooking
- 18:33 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Benson Z. Interference
3rd period0-2
- 10:05 Goal Buffalo Sabres: Gilbert D. assists: Quinn J., Benson Z. 4-3
- 12:16 Goal Buffalo Sabres: Samuelsson M. assists: Thompson T. 4-4
Overtime0-1
- 03:14 Goal Buffalo Sabres: Power O. assists: Quinn J., Ostlund N. 4-5
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- In goal: Bobrovsky S. for Toronto Maple Leafs (3-6-1 in the last 10 starts), Luukkonen U. for Buffalo Sabres (3-5-2 in the last 10 starts).
- Power play vs penalty kill: 28.1% on the power play for Toronto Maple Leafs, 66.7% on the penalty kill for Buffalo Sabres.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Buffalo Sabres.
- Save % gap: Toronto Maple Leafs 88.7%, Buffalo Sabres 84.9% over their recent games.
- 7.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (TOR) | 2.27 | 2.27 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.00 | 4.00 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (BUF) | 2.50 | 2.50 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 6.5 | 6.5 | No change |
| Handicap TOR | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 | Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Toronto Maple Leafs host Buffalo Sabres in the NHL on Thursday, October 15, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.