Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche prediction
Toronto Maple Leafs 3–, Colorado Avalanche 6
FT
Puck drop 19:00 ET
1X2 odds up 3.351X2 odds down 1.83
Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON) · USAScotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
TOR
1
1
1
COL
2
1
3
41%Toronto win · 31% in regulationTOR
Overtime or shootout · 22%OT / SO 22%
59%Colorado win · 47% in regulationCOL
Chance to win · 31% and 47% in regulation
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Lost
Maple Leafs +2.5
odds up 1.28
Confidence71%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 65%Full game
- 1X2WonAvalancheodds down 1.97Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostU7.5odds up 1.38Confidence 69%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapLostMaple Leafs +2.5odds up 1.28Confidence 71%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonAvalancheodds down 1.60Confidence 61%
- Double chanceWonAvalanche or drawodds down 1.33Confidence 70%
- Draw no betWonAvalancheodds down 1.55Confidence 62%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.06Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonAvalancheodds down 2.45Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.66Confidence 57%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Maple Leafs 2–4
Avalanche
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 9
Draw after 60 minDraw
22%
Decided in regulation
Colorado to winTo win
59%
COL won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost2–4After 60 min3–64%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–21st period1–28%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 4 goals31%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 2-4
- By period 0-2, 1-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 2-4 (4%), 2-3 (3%), 1-3 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Toronto Maple Leafs
Colorado Avalanche
Toronto Maple Leafs
Colorado Avalanche
Season recordToronto Maple Leafs 8-9-2Colorado Avalanche 10-6-2
Home / road splitToronto Maple Leafs 4-6-1Colorado Avalanche 3-5-0
StreakToronto Maple Leafs L3Colorado Avalanche W1
RestToronto Maple Leafs 1 dayColorado Avalanche 2 days
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 3.4Colorado Avalanche 4.0
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.4Colorado Avalanche 3.1
In the standingsToronto Maple Leafs 7thColorado Avalanche 2nd
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameToronto Maple Leafs +0.3Colorado Avalanche +0.4
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 3.5Colorado Avalanche 3.6
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.2Colorado Avalanche 3.2
Shots on goalToronto Maple Leafs 27.7Colorado Avalanche 30.1
Shots againstToronto Maple Leafs 29.4Colorado Avalanche 28.1
Shooting %Toronto Maple Leafs 12.6%Colorado Avalanche 12.0%
Save %Toronto Maple Leafs 90.1%Colorado Avalanche 89.0%
Power-play %Toronto Maple Leafs 22.2%Colorado Avalanche 21.1%
Penalty kill %Toronto Maple Leafs 83.7%Colorado Avalanche 80.5%
Faceoff %Toronto Maple Leafs 51.1%Colorado Avalanche 49.3%
Penalty minutesToronto Maple Leafs 11.6Colorado Avalanche 9.2
HitsToronto Maple Leafs 22.8Colorado Avalanche 14.6
Blocked shotsToronto Maple Leafs 9.8Colorado Avalanche 15.4
Per game · TOR at home, COL away
Goal differential per gameToronto Maple Leafs −0.7Colorado Avalanche −0.7
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 2.6Colorado Avalanche 3.0
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.3Colorado Avalanche 3.7
Shots on goalToronto Maple Leafs 29.9Colorado Avalanche 28.3
Shots againstToronto Maple Leafs 28.2Colorado Avalanche 26.8
Shooting %Toronto Maple Leafs 8.7%Colorado Avalanche 10.6%
Save %Toronto Maple Leafs 89.0%Colorado Avalanche 86.9%
Power-play %Toronto Maple Leafs 25.0%Colorado Avalanche 8.6%
Penalty kill %Toronto Maple Leafs 84.8%Colorado Avalanche 78.9%
Faceoff %Toronto Maple Leafs 50.8%Colorado Avalanche 45.9%
Penalty minutesToronto Maple Leafs 6.7Colorado Avalanche 10.6
HitsToronto Maple Leafs 20.4Colorado Avalanche 17.1
Blocked shotsToronto Maple Leafs 10.6Colorado Avalanche 15.2
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Maple Leafs 3–2
Avalanche
Goals a gameGoals
7.0
TOR 3.4 · COL 3.6
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
3 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
1 of 5
1 in overtime
- Oct 10, 2026: Colorado Avalanche 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6.
- Jan 25, 2026: Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Colorado Avalanche 4.
- Jan 12, 2026: Colorado Avalanche 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4, after overtime.
- Mar 19, 2025: Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Colorado Avalanche 1.
- Mar 8, 2025: Colorado Avalanche 7, Toronto Maple Leafs 4.
Last five games
Maple Leafs
1-4-0 - Loss, 0–4 against New Jersey Devils, Nov 8. Odds: Maple Leafs 3.10, Devils 1.96.
- Loss, 2–4 against Montreal Canadiens, Nov 7. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.70, Canadiens 2.15.
- Loss, 2–3 against Utah Mammoth, Nov 3. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.90, Mammoth 1.96.
- Win, 4–2 at Vancouver Canucks, Oct 31. Odds: Canucks 3.80, Maple Leafs 1.70.
- Loss, 4–5 at Seattle Kraken, Oct 28. Odds: Kraken 2.75, Maple Leafs 2.10.
Avalanche
3-1-1 - Win, 4–0 against Detroit Red Wings, Nov 7. Odds: Avalanche 1.65, Red Wings 4.10.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 against Nashville Predators, after overtime, Nov 5. Odds: Avalanche 1.67, Predators 3.90.
- Loss, 2–7 at Columbus Blue Jackets, Nov 3. Odds: Blue Jackets 2.75, Avalanche 2.15.
- Win, 5–2 at Chicago Blackhawks, Nov 2. Odds: Blackhawks 4.10, Avalanche 1.65.
- Win, 5–2 against Calgary Flames, Oct 31. Odds: Avalanche 1.35, Flames 6.25.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-2
- 03:33 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Raddysh D. assists: Matthews A., Roslovic J. 1-0
- 16:09 Goal Colorado Avalanche: Nelson B. assists: Hughes T., Schwartz J. 1-1
- 17:26 Goal Colorado Avalanche: Landeskog G. assists: Roy N., Makar C. 1-2
2nd period1-1
- 03:31 Goal Colorado Avalanche: Toews D. assists: O'Connor L., Kelly P. 1-3
- 07:05 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Duhaime B. Hooking
- 13:12 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: McKenna G. High sticking
- 17:30 2 min Colorado Avalanche: Necas M. High sticking
- 19:31 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Cowan E. assists: McKenna G., Paul N. 2-3
3rd period1-3
- 04:11 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Roslovic J. assists: Cowan E., Raddysh D. 3-3
- 05:02 Goal Colorado Avalanche: Landeskog G. assists: Kadri N., Malinski S. 3-4
- 17:15 Goal Colorado Avalanche: Lehkonen A. assists: Makar C., Toews D. 3-5
- 17:30 Goal ENG Colorado Avalanche: Necas M. 3-6
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for Toronto Maple Leafs coming into this game.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Toronto Maple Leafs.
- −1.4 goals away — Colorado Avalanche averaged 4.6 at home and 3.3 away this season.
- 7.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (TOR) | 3.05 | 3.35 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.50 | Drifted |
| 1X2: 2 (COL) | 1.96 | 1.83 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 6 | 6.5 | Line raised |
| Handicap TOR | +1.5 | +1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
Regular Season · Central Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Wild |
20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 30 | .750 | 65 | 44 | +21 |
| 2 | Colorado Avalanche |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 78 | 59 | +19 |
| 3 |  Nashville Predators |
18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 23 | .639 | 55 | 51 | +4 |
| 4 |  Dallas Stars |
17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 22 | .647 | 49 | 41 | +8 |
| 5 |  Utah Mammoth |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| 6 |  Winnipeg Jets |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 53 | 65 | −12 |
| 7 |  St. Louis Blues |
18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 18 | .500 | 53 | 55 | −2 |
| 8 |  Chicago Blackhawks |
18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 9 | .250 | 39 | 76 | −37 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Toronto Maple Leafs host Colorado Avalanche in the NHL on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.