Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Handicap Lost

Maple Leafs +1.5 1.37

Confidence68%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 61%

Full game

1X2WonCanadiens2.30Confidence 51%
Over/UnderWonU7.5odds up 1.39Confidence 69%
Best tip of the game: HandicapLostMaple Leafs +1.5odds up 1.37Confidence 68%
Winner (incl. OT)WonCanadiens1.83Confidence 51%
Double chanceWonCanadiens or drawodds down 1.44Confidence 66%
Draw no betWonCanadiensodds down 1.84Confidence 51%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.05Confidence 89%

1st period

1st period 1X2WonCanadiens2.70Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.67Confidence 56%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Maple Leafs 23

Canadiens

Final 2–4

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 6

Draw after 60 minDraw 22% Decided in regulation

Montreal to winTo win 51% MTL won

Score details

Correct scoreLost2–3After 60 min2–43%chance
1st period correct scoreWon0–21st period0–27%chance
Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 3 goals30%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 2-3
By period 0-2, 0-0, 2-1
Likeliest 2-3 (3%), 3-4 (2%), 1-2 (2%)

Team stats

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record8-7-210-3-3

Home / road split4-4-15-1-1

StreakL1W1

Rest3 days1 day

Goals for3.63.6

Goals against3.33.2

In the standings7th2nd

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game+0.5+0.9

Goals for3.83.8

Goals against3.32.9

Shots on goal28.527.1

Shots against29.129.7

Shooting %13.3%14.0%

Save %89.7%90.2%

Power-play %23.7%11.6%

Penalty kill %87.2%82.7%

Faceoff %53.8%50.6%

Penalty minutes11.711.6

Blocked shots8.813.0

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Head-to-head

Maple Leafs 05

Canadiens

Montreal won five of the last five meetings

Goals a gameGoals 4.8 TOR 1.6 · MTL 3.2

Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5 1 of 5 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 2 of 5 1 in overtime · 1 in a shootout

Sep 29, 2026: Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Montreal Canadiens 3.
Sep 19, 2026: Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Montreal Canadiens 4.
Sep 19, 2026: Montreal Canadiens 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3, after overtime.
Mar 10, 2026: Montreal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1.
Dec 6, 2025: Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Montreal Canadiens 2, after a shootout.

Last five games

Maple Leafs 2-3-0

Loss, 2–3 against Utah Mammoth, Nov 3. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.90, Mammoth 1.96.
Win, 4–2 at Vancouver Canucks, Oct 31. Odds: Canucks 3.80, Maple Leafs 1.70.
Loss, 4–5 at Seattle Kraken, Oct 28. Odds: Kraken 2.75, Maple Leafs 2.10.
Loss, 2–5 at Calgary Flames, Oct 26. Odds: Flames 2.85, Maple Leafs 2.05.
Win, 7–2 at Edmonton Oilers, Oct 24. Odds: Oilers 1.96, Maple Leafs 3.00.

Canadiens 4-0-1

Win, 5–4 against Utah Mammoth, after overtime, Nov 5. Odds: Canadiens 2.65, Mammoth 2.15.
Overtime loss, 4–5 against Winnipeg Jets, after overtime, Nov 3. Odds: Canadiens 1.83, Jets 3.45.
Win, 5–4 against Pittsburgh Penguins, Oct 31. Odds: Canadiens 2.20, Penguins 2.60.
Win, 5–2 at Dallas Stars, Oct 29. Odds: Stars 1.96, Canadiens 3.19.
Win, 2–0 at St. Louis Blues, Oct 27. Odds: Blues 2.60, Canadiens 2.25.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period0-2

05:56 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Newhook A. assists: Kapanen O. 0-1
13:06 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Newhook A. assists: Guhle K., Dach K. 0-2
17:25 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Stecher T. Boarding

2nd period0-1

02:50 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Carrier A. High sticking
12:57 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Kreider C. 0-3

3rd period2-1

04:40 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Xhekaj A. Unsportsmanlike conduct
06:19 Goal PPG Toronto Maple Leafs: Nylander W. assists: Raddysh D., Matthews A. 1-3
07:14 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: McKenna G. assists: Joshua D., Sissons C. 2-3
11:37 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Stecher T. Hooking
12:15 Goal PPG Montreal Canadiens: Bolduc Z. assists: Hutson L., Caufield C. 2-4
16:27 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Slafkovsky J. High sticking

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

Rest advantage: 3 days off for Toronto Maple Leafs, 1 for Montreal Canadiens.
5-0 in the last 5 meetings for Montreal Canadiens.
4-0-1 in the last five for Montreal Canadiens.
4.8 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.5.
7th vs 2nd in the NHL standings.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (TOR)	2.65	2.70	Drifted
1X2: X (draw)	4.20	4.20	No change
1X2: 2 (MTL)	2.15	2.15	No change
Over/Under line	6	6.5	Line raised
Handicap TOR	+1.5	+1.5	No change

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

NHL standings

Regular Season · Atlantic Division

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Boston Bruins	18	13	4	1	27	.750	68	41	+27
2	Montreal Canadiens	18	11	3	4	26	.722	62	55	+7
3	Tampa Bay Lightning	17	11	4	2	24	.706	63	53	+10
4	Ottawa Senators	19	11	6	2	24	.632	60	57	+3
5	Florida Panthers	19	10	7	2	22	.579	60	56	+4
6	Buffalo Sabres	17	8	6	3	19	.559	50	57	−7
7	Toronto Maple Leafs	20	8	10	2	18	.450	67	70	−3
8	Detroit Red Wings	19	7	9	3	17	.447	51	59	−8

Playoffs

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens prediction

All predictions

Full game

1st period

Predicted final score

Score details