Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders prediction
Toronto Maple Leafs 1–, New York Islanders 4
FT
Puck drop 19:00 ET
1X2 2.171X2 2.77
Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON) · USAScotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
TOR
0
0
1
NYI
1
1
2
51%Toronto win · 40% in regulationTOR
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
49%New York win · 37% in regulationNYI
Chance to win · 40% and 37% in regulation
Bobrovsky S.StartedSV 87.9% · GAA 3.50 · 3-5-2
Sorokin I.StartedSV 89.2% · GAA 2.50 · 5-5-0
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Islanders +1.5
odds down 1.45
Confidence67%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 61%Full game
- 1X2LostMaple Leafsodds up 2.12Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds up 1.33Confidence 69%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonIslanders +1.5odds down 1.45Confidence 67%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostMaple Leafsodds up 1.65Confidence 51%
- Double chanceLostMaple Leafs or drawodds down 1.41Confidence 66%
- Draw no betLostMaple Leafsodds up 1.66Confidence 51%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.07Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostMaple Leafs2.55Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds up 1.72Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Maple Leafs 3–2
Islanders
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 5
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Toronto to winTo win
51%
NYI won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min1–43%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period0–17%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 3 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (3%), 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Toronto Maple Leafs
New York Islanders
Toronto Maple Leafs
New York Islanders
Season recordToronto Maple Leafs 3-3-2New York Islanders 3-3-1
Home / road splitToronto Maple Leafs 2-2-1New York Islanders 0-2-1
StreakToronto Maple Leafs L2New York Islanders L1
RestToronto Maple Leafs 1 dayNew York Islanders 1 day
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 3.5New York Islanders 2.9
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.5New York Islanders 2.4
In the standingsToronto Maple Leafs 12thNew York Islanders 11th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameToronto Maple Leafs −0.2New York Islanders −0.3
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 3.4New York Islanders 2.2
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.6New York Islanders 2.5
Shots on goalToronto Maple Leafs 27.1New York Islanders 26.5
Shots againstToronto Maple Leafs 31.2New York Islanders 23.4
Shooting %Toronto Maple Leafs 12.5%New York Islanders 8.3%
Save %Toronto Maple Leafs 88.8%New York Islanders 91.0%
Power-play %Toronto Maple Leafs 27.8%New York Islanders 9.8%
Penalty kill %Toronto Maple Leafs 89.5%New York Islanders 86.7%
Faceoff %Toronto Maple Leafs 50.4%New York Islanders 52.7%
Penalty minutesToronto Maple Leafs 7.9New York Islanders 11.0
HitsToronto Maple Leafs 20.6New York Islanders 21.5
Blocked shotsToronto Maple Leafs 11.5New York Islanders 14.0
Per game · TOR at home, NYI away
Goal differential per gameToronto Maple Leafs −1.0New York Islanders −0.7
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 2.9New York Islanders 2.4
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.9New York Islanders 3.1
Shots on goalToronto Maple Leafs 26.3New York Islanders 26.9
Shots againstToronto Maple Leafs 29.2New York Islanders 28.3
Shooting %Toronto Maple Leafs 11.0%New York Islanders 8.9%
Save %Toronto Maple Leafs 87.7%New York Islanders 90.1%
Power-play %Toronto Maple Leafs 22.6%New York Islanders 17.8%
Penalty kill %Toronto Maple Leafs 84.4%New York Islanders 83.7%
Faceoff %Toronto Maple Leafs 52.9%New York Islanders 50.9%
Penalty minutesToronto Maple Leafs 6.9New York Islanders 12.0
HitsToronto Maple Leafs 21.5New York Islanders 23.3
Blocked shotsToronto Maple Leafs 12.9New York Islanders 15.1
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Maple Leafs 2–3
Islanders
Goals a gameGoals
5.0
TOR 2.2 · NYI 2.8
Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0
2 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
1 of 5
1 in overtime
- Sep 30, 2026: Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Islanders 1.
- Apr 9, 2026: New York Islanders 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3.
- Mar 17, 2026: Toronto Maple Leafs 1, New York Islanders 3.
- Jan 3, 2026: New York Islanders 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3, after overtime.
- Jan 2, 2025: New York Islanders 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.
Last five games
Maple Leafs
2-1-2 - Overtime loss, 4–5 against Buffalo Sabres, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.27, Sabres 2.50.
- Loss, 4–5 at Utah Mammoth, Oct 13. Odds: Mammoth 2.01, Maple Leafs 3.12.
- Win, 6–3 at Colorado Avalanche, Oct 10. Odds: Avalanche 1.86, Maple Leafs 3.25.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 at Vegas Golden Knights, after a shootout, Oct 8.
- Win, 5–4 against Nashville Predators, after overtime, Oct 6.
Islanders
2-2-1 - Overtime loss, 1–2 at Ottawa Senators, after a shootout, Oct 15. Odds: Senators 1.91, Islanders 3.25.
- Win, 3–2 against Vancouver Canucks, Oct 13. Odds: Islanders 1.80, Canucks 3.78.
- Loss, 3–5 against Tampa Bay Lightning, Oct 10. Odds: Islanders 2.75, Lightning 2.20.
- Win, 4–1 against Chicago Blackhawks, Oct 8.
- Loss, 2–5 at New York Rangers, Oct 6.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-1
- 08:18 Goal New York Islanders: Duclair A. assists: Pageau J. 0-1
- 16:36 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Raddysh D. Tripping
- 18:26 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Cowan E. Delay of game
2nd period0-1
- 18:33 Goal New York Islanders: Horvat B. assists: Palmieri K. 0-2
- 19:21 2 min New York Islanders: Pelech A. Interference
3rd period1-2
- 01:23 2 min New York Islanders: Heineman E. Tripping
- 03:54 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Sissons C. assists: Stecher T., Cowan E. 1-2
- 10:10 2 min New York Islanders: Schaefer M. Delay of game
- 14:08 Goal New York Islanders: Holmstrom S. assists: Horvat B., Schaefer M. 1-3
- 17:55 Goal ENG New York Islanders: Holmstrom S. 1-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- In goal: Bobrovsky S. for Toronto Maple Leafs (3-5-2 in the last 10 starts), Sorokin I. for New York Islanders (5-5-0 in the last 10 starts).
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for New York Islanders.
- Save % gap: Toronto Maple Leafs 88.8%, New York Islanders 91.0% over their recent games.
- 5.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.
- 12th vs 11th in the NHL standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (TOR) | 2.17 | 2.17 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.20 | 4.20 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (NYI) | 2.77 | 2.77 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 6 | Line raised |
| Handicap TOR | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Carolina Hurricanes |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 30 | .789 | 78 | 45 | +33 |
| 2 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 3 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 4 |  New Jersey Devils |
19 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 26 | .684 | 68 | 55 | +13 |
| 5 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 6 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 7 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 8 |  New York Rangers |
19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 21 | .553 | 56 | 55 | +1 |
| 9 |  Washington Capitals |
16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 20 | .625 | 56 | 53 | +3 |
| 10 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 11 | New York Islanders |
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .529 | 49 | 52 | −3 |
| 12 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 13 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
| 14 |  Philadelphia Flyers |
20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | .375 | 45 | 66 | −21 |
| 15 |  Columbus Blue Jackets |
16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 14 | .438 | 41 | 51 | −10 |
| 16 |  Pittsburgh Penguins |
18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 14 | .389 | 58 | 65 | −7 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Toronto Maple Leafs host New York Islanders in the NHL on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.