Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Rangers prediction
Toronto Maple Leafs 5–, New York Rangers 4
FT
Puck drop 19:00 ET
1X2 2.451X2 2.30
Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON) · USAScotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
TOR
2
2
1
NYR
1
2
1
47%Toronto win · 36% in regulationTOR
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
53%New York win · 41% in regulationNYR
Chance to win · 36% and 41% in regulation
Bobrovsky S.StartedSV 89.6% · GAA 2.90 · 3-5-2
Garand D.StartedSV 93% · GAA 2.00 · 6-1-2
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Rangers +1.5
odds down 1.36
Confidence70%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 62%Full game
- 1X2LostRangersodds down 2.44Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostU7.51.35Confidence 70%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonRangers +1.5odds down 1.36Confidence 70%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostRangersodds up 1.88Confidence 54%
- Double chanceLostRangers or drawodds down 1.52Confidence 66%
- Draw no betLostRangersodds down 1.91Confidence 56%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.06Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostRangersodds down 2.80Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds up 1.69Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Maple Leafs 1–4
Rangers
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 9
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
New York to winTo win
53%
TOR won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost1–4After 60 min5–44%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–21st period2–17%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 1-4
- By period 0-2, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 1-4 (4%), 2-5 (4%), 2-4 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Toronto Maple Leafs
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
New York Rangers
Season recordToronto Maple Leafs 5-4-2New York Rangers 7-3-1
Home / road splitToronto Maple Leafs 3-3-1New York Rangers 1-3-1
StreakToronto Maple Leafs W2New York Rangers W1
RestToronto Maple Leafs 1 dayNew York Rangers 2 days
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 3.5New York Rangers 3.0
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.2New York Rangers 2.2
In the standingsToronto Maple Leafs 12thNew York Rangers 8th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameToronto Maple Leafs +0.5New York Rangers +1.2
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 3.6New York Rangers 3.3
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.1New York Rangers 2.1
Shots on goalToronto Maple Leafs 27.8New York Rangers 24.0
Shots againstToronto Maple Leafs 30.4New York Rangers 25.9
Shooting %Toronto Maple Leafs 12.9%New York Rangers 13.8%
Save %Toronto Maple Leafs 90.1%New York Rangers 92.3%
Power-play %Toronto Maple Leafs 28.6%New York Rangers 15.9%
Penalty kill %Toronto Maple Leafs 97.7%New York Rangers 95.6%
Faceoff %Toronto Maple Leafs 53.6%New York Rangers 54.4%
Penalty minutesToronto Maple Leafs 10.0New York Rangers 11.6
HitsToronto Maple Leafs 17.4New York Rangers 24.8
Blocked shotsToronto Maple Leafs 10.4New York Rangers 14.3
Per game · TOR at home, NYR away
Goal differential per gameToronto Maple Leafs −1.1New York Rangers −1.5
Goals forToronto Maple Leafs 2.6New York Rangers 1.6
Goals againstToronto Maple Leafs 3.7New York Rangers 3.1
Shots on goalToronto Maple Leafs 27.9New York Rangers 25.3
Shots againstToronto Maple Leafs 26.3New York Rangers 24.9
Shooting %Toronto Maple Leafs 9.3%New York Rangers 6.3%
Save %Toronto Maple Leafs 87.5%New York Rangers 89.2%
Power-play %Toronto Maple Leafs 25.0%New York Rangers 15.9%
Penalty kill %Toronto Maple Leafs 93.5%New York Rangers 94.4%
Faceoff %Toronto Maple Leafs 53.5%New York Rangers 53.1%
Penalty minutesToronto Maple Leafs 6.5New York Rangers 9.1
HitsToronto Maple Leafs 20.2New York Rangers 25.8
Blocked shotsToronto Maple Leafs 11.9New York Rangers 14.0
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Maple Leafs 4–1
Rangers
Goals a gameGoals
6.0
TOR 3.0 · NYR 3.0
Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0
3 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
1 of 5
1 in overtime
- Mar 25, 2026: Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New York Rangers 3.
- Mar 5, 2026: New York Rangers 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.
- Oct 16, 2025: Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Rangers 1, after overtime.
- Mar 20, 2025: New York Rangers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4.
- Feb 28, 2025: New York Rangers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3.
Last five games
Maple Leafs
2-2-1 - Win, 6–2 at Columbus Blue Jackets, Oct 20. Odds: Blue Jackets 1.91, Maple Leafs 3.05.
- Win, 3–1 against San Jose Sharks, Oct 19. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.01, Sharks 3.00.
- Loss, 1–4 against New York Islanders, Oct 17. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.17, Islanders 2.77.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 against Buffalo Sabres, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.27, Sabres 2.50.
- Loss, 4–5 at Utah Mammoth, Oct 13. Odds: Mammoth 2.01, Maple Leafs 3.12.
Rangers
3-1-1 - Win, 5–2 against Anaheim Ducks, Oct 19. Odds: Rangers 2.01, Ducks 3.00.
- Overtime loss, 0–1 at Columbus Blue Jackets, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Blue Jackets 2.18, Rangers 2.75.
- Loss, 1–7 at New Jersey Devils, Oct 15. Odds: Devils 2.18, Rangers 2.67.
- Win, 4–1 against Tampa Bay Lightning, Oct 13. Odds: Rangers 3.18, Lightning 2.04.
- Win, 6–2 against Vancouver Canucks, Oct 11. Odds: Rangers 1.65, Canucks 4.65.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-1
- 01:36 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Cowan E. assists: McCabe J., Roslovic J. 1-0
- 05:39 Goal New York Rangers: Zibanejad M. assists: Gavrikov V., Fox A. 1-1
- 10:01 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Blueger T. assists: Duhaime B., MacEwen Z. 2-1
2nd period2-2
- 02:37 Goal New York Rangers: Bjorkstrand O. assists: Dowling J., Fox A. 2-2
- 06:30 Goal New York Rangers: Kartye T. assists: Fox A., Dorofeyev P. 2-3
- 08:00 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Duhaime B. assists: MacEwen Z., Blueger T. 3-3
- 17:56 2 min New York Rangers: Lafreniere A. Hooking
- 19:09 Goal PPG Toronto Maple Leafs: Marchenko K. assists: McKenna G., Nylander W. 4-3
3rd period1-1
- 02:59 2 min New York Rangers: Gavrikov V. Interference
- 09:15 2 min Toronto Maple Leafs: Roslovic J. Tripping
- 14:25 Goal New York Rangers: Lafreniere A. assists: Fox A., Zibanejad M. 4-4
- 19:32 Goal Toronto Maple Leafs: Stecher T. assists: Rielly M., Duhaime B. 5-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 1-3-1 away for New York Rangers this season.
- In goal: Bobrovsky S. for Toronto Maple Leafs (3-5-2 in the last 10 starts), Garand D. for New York Rangers (6-1-2 in the last 9 starts).
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Toronto Maple Leafs.
- Save % gap: Toronto Maple Leafs 90.1%, New York Rangers 92.3% over their recent games.
- 6.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (TOR) | 2.45 | 2.45 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.20 | 4.20 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (NYR) | 2.30 | 2.30 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 6 | Line raised |
| Handicap TOR | −1.5 | +1.5 | Line moved |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Carolina Hurricanes |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 30 | .789 | 78 | 45 | +33 |
| 2 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 3 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 4 |  New Jersey Devils |
19 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 26 | .684 | 68 | 55 | +13 |
| 5 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 6 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 7 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 8 | New York Rangers |
19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 21 | .553 | 56 | 55 | +1 |
| 9 |  Washington Capitals |
16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 20 | .625 | 56 | 53 | +3 |
| 10 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 11 |  New York Islanders |
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .529 | 49 | 52 | −3 |
| 12 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 13 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
| 14 |  Philadelphia Flyers |
20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | .375 | 45 | 66 | −21 |
| 15 |  Columbus Blue Jackets |
16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 14 | .438 | 41 | 51 | −10 |
| 16 |  Pittsburgh Penguins |
18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 14 | .389 | 58 | 65 | −7 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Toronto Maple Leafs host New York Rangers in the NHL on Thursday, October 22, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.