Toronto Marlies vs Hamilton Hammers Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Handicap Won

Toronto +2.5 1.28

Confidence78%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%

Full game

1X2WonTorontoodds down 2.90Confidence 51%
Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.39Confidence 71%
Best tip of the game: HandicapWonToronto +2.5odds down 1.28Confidence 78%
Winner (incl. OT)WonTorontoodds down 2.20Confidence 57%
Double chanceWonToronto or drawodds down 1.67Confidence 66%
Draw no betWonTorontoodds down 2.37Confidence 57%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.08Confidence 88%

1st period

1st period 1X2WonTorontoodds down 3.30Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.85Confidence 56%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: an edge above the model’s usual ceiling; the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Toronto 41

Hamilton

Final 4–1

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 5

Draw after 60 minDraw 21% Decided in regulation

TOR to winTo win 63% TOR won

Score details

Correct scoreWon4–1After 60 min4–15%chance
1st period correct scoreWon2–01st period2–08%chance
Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 1st & 2nd30%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 4-1
By period 2-0, 0-0, 2-1
Likeliest 4-1 (5%), 5-2 (4%), 3-2 (4%)

Predicted team stats

The brighter bar is the bigger figure

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Built on 6+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record4-2-01-4-1

Home / road split1-1-01-1-0

StreakL1L5

Rest2 days2 days

Goals for3.83.0

Goals against3.34.2

In the standings3rd—

Per game · last 10 and 6

Goal differential per game+0.4−1.0

Goals for3.53.0

Goals against3.14.0

Shots on goal30.128.8

Shots against25.829.7

Shooting %11.6%10.4%

Save %88.4%88.2%

Power-play %14.9%14.3%

Penalty kill %89.6%81.3%

Penalty minutes10.811.7

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Head-to-head

Toronto 40

Hamilton

Toronto Marlies won four of the last four meetings

Goals a gameGoals 7.5 TOR 5.0 · HAM 2.5

Over 5.5 goalsOver 5.5 4 of 4 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 1 of 4 1 in a shootout

Nov 4, 2026: Hamilton Hammers 1, Toronto Marlies 5.
Oct 11, 2026: Hamilton Hammers 2, Toronto Marlies 5.
Oct 9, 2026: Hamilton Hammers 4, Toronto Marlies 5, after a shootout.
Oct 3, 2026: Toronto Marlies 5, Hamilton Hammers 3.

Last five games

Toronto 4-1-0

Loss, 2–4 against Belleville Senators, Oct 18. Odds: Toronto 2.00, Belleville 2.62.
Win, 5–4 at Belleville Senators, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Belleville 2.62, Toronto 2.14.
Win, 5–2 at Hamilton Hammers, Oct 11. Odds: Hamilton 2.47, Toronto 2.27.
Win, 5–4 at Hamilton Hammers, after a shootout, Oct 9. Odds: Hamilton 2.55, Toronto 2.25.
Win, 5–3 against Hamilton Hammers, Oct 3.

Hamilton 0-4-1

Loss, 3–4 against Syracuse Crunch, Oct 18. Odds: Hamilton 2.55, Syracuse 2.20.
Loss, 1–4 against Rochester Americans, Oct 16. Odds: Hamilton 2.05, Rochester 2.55.
Loss, 2–5 against Toronto Marlies, Oct 11. Odds: Hamilton 2.47, Toronto 2.27.
Overtime loss, 4–5 against Toronto Marlies, after a shootout, Oct 9. Odds: Hamilton 2.55, Toronto 2.25.
Loss, 3–5 at Toronto Marlies, Oct 3.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period2-0

03:55 Goal Toronto Marlies: Haymes L. assists: Holinka M. 1-0
06:20 Goal Toronto Marlies: Pezzetta M. assists: Myers P., Hundley H. 2-0

2nd period1-1

07' Goal Toronto Marlies: Raty A. 3-0
08' Goal Hamilton Hammers: Odelius C. 3-1

3rd period1-0

19' Goal Toronto Marlies: — 4-1

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

5-game losing streak for Hamilton Hammers coming into this game.
Odds moved: the odds on Toronto Marlies dropped from 2.17 to 1.65 since they were first published.
4-0 in the last 4 meetings for Toronto Marlies.
Goal differential gap of 1.4 per game — Toronto Marlies +0.4, Hamilton Hammers −1.0 over their recent games.
4-1-0 in the last five for Toronto Marlies.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (TOR)	2.20	2.20	No change
1X2: X (draw)	4.30	4.30	No change
1X2: 2 (HAM)	2.50	2.50	No change
Over/Under line	5.5	5.5	No change
Handicap TOR	+0.5	−0.5	Line moved

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

AHL standings

Regular Season · North Division

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Laval Rocket	14	10	3	1	21	.750	53	30	+23
2	Utica Comets	11	9	2	0	18	.818	35	24	+11
3	Toronto Marlies	14	7	4	3	17	.607	44	41	+3
4	Belleville Senators	14	7	5	2	16	.571	44	43	+1
5	Rochester Americans	13	7	5	1	15	.577	42	32	+10
6	Syracuse Crunch	12	5	5	2	12	.500	35	39	−4
7	Cleveland Monsters	13	6	7	0	12	.462	40	50	−10
8	Hamilton Hammers	15	4	9	2	10	.333	41	61	−20

Playoffs

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Toronto Marlies vs Hamilton Hammers prediction