Toronto Marlies vs Hershey Bears prediction
Chance to win · 39% and 38% in regulation
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 61%Full game
- 1X2LostHersheyodds up 2.17Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.41Confidence 71%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonToronto +1.51.32Confidence 69%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostHersheyodds up 1.74Confidence 51%
- Double chanceLostHershey or drawodds up 1.42Confidence 66%
- Draw no betLostHersheyodds down 1.83Confidence 51%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.08Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostDrawodds up 2.70Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds down 1.85Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Toronto 2–3
Hershey Score details
- Correct scoreLost2–3After 60 min5–33%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost1–11st period1–013%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 5 goals29%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 2-3
- By period 1-1, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 2-3 (4%), 3-4 (2%), 4-5 (1%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent formToronto Marlies
Hershey Bears
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Toronto 3–1
Hershey - Feb 18, 2026: Toronto Marlies 2, Hershey Bears 3.
- Nov 7, 2025: Hershey Bears 2, Toronto Marlies 5.
- Dec 21, 2024: Hershey Bears 3, Toronto Marlies 7.
- Nov 20, 2024: Toronto Marlies 4, Hershey Bears 3, after overtime.
Last five games
Toronto
2-2-1 - Loss, 0–3 against Rockford IceHogs, Oct 25. Odds: Toronto 2.05, Rockford 2.75.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 against Rockford IceHogs, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Toronto 2.10, Rockford 2.71.
- Win, 4–1 against Hamilton Hammers, Oct 21. Odds: Toronto 2.20, Hamilton 2.50.
- Loss, 2–4 against Belleville Senators, Oct 18. Odds: Toronto 2.00, Belleville 2.62.
- Win, 5–4 at Belleville Senators, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Belleville 2.62, Toronto 2.14.
Hershey
4-1-0 - Win, 3–2 at Rochester Americans, Oct 28. Odds: Rochester 2.15, Hershey 2.50.
- Win, 5–2 against Belleville Senators, Oct 24. Odds: Hershey 2.10, Belleville 2.60.
- Loss, 1–6 against Providence Bruins, Oct 18. Odds: Hershey 2.50, Providence 2.25.
- Win, 5–3 against Providence Bruins, Oct 17. Odds: Hershey 2.35, Providence 2.22.
- Win, 6–1 against Texas Stars, Oct 11. Odds: Hershey 2.63, Texas 2.20.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-0
- 10:45 Goal Toronto Marlies: Valis B. assists: Barbolini M., Borgesi V. 1-0
2nd period0-2
- 01:11 Goal PPG Hershey Bears: Trineyev B. assists: Dunne J., Cristall A. 1-1
- 18:18 Goal PPG Hershey Bears: Dunne J. assists: Brodzinski J., Smallman S. 1-2
3rd period4-1
- 01:22 Goal PPG Toronto Marlies: Valis B. assists: Brisson B., Borgesi V. 2-2
- 02:36 Goal PPG Toronto Marlies: Tverberg R. assists: Brisson B., Shaw L. 3-2
- 12:06 Goal Hershey Bears: Smallman S. assists: MacDonald J., Niederbach T. 3-3
- 13:24 Goal PPG Toronto Marlies: Shaw L. assists: Borgesi V., Tverberg R. 4-3
- 18:24 Goal ENG Toronto Marlies: Myers P. 5-3
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Rest advantage: 4 days off for Toronto Marlies, 1 for Hershey Bears.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Toronto Marlies.
- 4-1-0 in the last five for Hershey Bears.
- Save % gap: Toronto Marlies 86.9%, Hershey Bears 89.6% over their recent games.
- 7.3 goals per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (TOR) | 2.50 | 2.50 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (HER) | 2.20 | 2.20 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap TOR | +1.5 | +0.5 | Line moved |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
AHL standings
Regular Season · North Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Laval Rocket |
14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 21 | .750 | 53 | 30 | +23 |
| 2 |  Utica Comets |
11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | .818 | 35 | 24 | +11 |
| 3 | Toronto Marlies |
14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 17 | .607 | 44 | 41 | +3 |
| 4 |  Belleville Senators |
14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | .571 | 44 | 43 | +1 |
| 5 |  Rochester Americans |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | .577 | 42 | 32 | +10 |
| 6 |  Syracuse Crunch |
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | .500 | 35 | 39 | −4 |
| 7 |  Cleveland Monsters |
13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | .462 | 40 | 50 | −10 |
| 8 | Hamilton Hammers | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 10 | .333 | 41 | 61 | −20 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charlotte Checkers |
15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 19 | .633 | 46 | 42 | +4 |
| 2 |  Hartford Wolf Pack |
17 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 17 | .500 | 44 | 49 | −5 |
| 3 | Hershey Bears |
13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 16 | .615 | 42 | 38 | +4 |
| 4 |  Wilkes-Barre/Scranton |
13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 15 | .577 | 47 | 37 | +10 |
| 5 |  Providence Bruins |
14 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 12 | .429 | 47 | 43 | +4 |
| 6 |  Lehigh Valley Phantoms |
13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 11 | .423 | 37 | 55 | −18 |
| 7 |  Springfield Thunderbirds |
13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 11 | .423 | 32 | 46 | −14 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Toronto Marlies host Hershey Bears in the AHL on Friday, October 30, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.