TPS Turku vs Ilves Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Lost

U6.5 1.28

Confidence73%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%

Full game

1X2WonTPSodds down 2.32Confidence 51%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderLostU6.5odds up 1.28Confidence 73%
HandicapWonIlves +1.5odds up 1.34Confidence 64%
Winner (incl. OT)WonTPSodds down 1.82Confidence 51%
Double chanceWonTPS or drawodds down 1.45Confidence 66%
Draw no betWonTPSodds down 1.76Confidence 51%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.13Confidence 84%

1st period

1st period 1X2LostDrawodds up 2.47Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonU2.5odds up 1.18Confidence 79%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the odds drifted 3% since they opened; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

TPS 21

Ilves

Final 4–3

Total goalsTotal 3 Actual 7

Draw after 60 minDraw 23% Decided in regulation

TUR to winTo win 51% TUR won

Score details

Correct scoreLost2–1After 60 min4–34%chance
1st period correct scoreLost0–01st period0–122%chance
Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 2nd & 3rd30%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 2-1
By period 0-0, 1-0, 1-1
Likeliest 2-1 (4%), 3-2 (4%)

Team stats

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record8-5-110-4-0

Home / road split5-1-05-3-0

StreakW3W1

Rest2 days2 days

Goals for2.92.9

Goals against2.32.1

In the standings8th2nd

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game+0.7+0.7

Goals for2.92.9

Goals against2.22.2

Shots on goal26.225.6

Shots against19.422.5

Shooting %11.1%11.3%

Save %89.7%91.1%

Power-play %19.0%11.5%

Penalty kill %90.3%92.0%

Faceoff %48.4%51.7%

Penalty minutes6.27.1

Blocked shots13.410.7

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Head-to-head

TPS 14

Ilves

Ilves won four of the last five meetings

Goals a gameGoals 6.2 TUR 2.4 · ILV 3.8

Over 5.0 goalsOver 5.0 3 of 5 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 2 of 5 2 in overtime

Sep 27, 2026: Ilves 3, TPS Turku 2.
Mar 7, 2026: TPS Turku 1, Ilves 4.
Jan 3, 2026: Ilves 5, TPS Turku 2.
Oct 18, 2025: TPS Turku 4, Ilves 3, after overtime.
Oct 17, 2025: Ilves 4, TPS Turku 3, after overtime.

Last five games

TPS 4-0-1

Win, 4–2 at Assat, Oct 17. Odds: Assat 2.40, TPS 2.61.
Win, 4–2 against Kiekko-Espoo, Oct 16. Odds: TPS 2.19, Kiekko-Espoo 2.91.
Win, 4–3 at IFK Helsinki, after a shootout, Oct 14. Odds: HIFK 2.95, TPS 2.13.
Overtime loss, 3–4 at Tappara, after a shootout, Oct 10.
Win, 4–1 against JYP, Oct 3.

Ilves 2-3-0

Win, 4–3 against Jokerit, after a shootout, Oct 17. Odds: Ilves 1.73, Jokerit 4.10.
Loss, 1–3 at Hameenlinna, Oct 16. Odds: HPK 3.90, Ilves 1.81.
Win, 3–0 at Jokerit, Oct 10.
Loss, 1–5 against Lukko, Oct 9. Odds: Ilves 1.98, Lukko 3.20.
Loss, 1–2 at Vaasan Sport, Oct 7.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period0-1

03:17 Goal Ilves: Latvala O. assists: Haatanen A., Kos O. 0-1
08:49 2 min TPS Turku: Lehtonen S. High sticking
11:31 2 min Ilves: Nyberg J. Tripping

2nd period2-1

01:58 Goal TPS Turku: Tuhkala A. assists: Bryggman L., Paajanen O. 1-1
04:25 2 min TPS Turku: Lauridsen O. Slashing
05:17 2 min Ilves: Henman L. Cross checking
05:17 2 min TPS Turku: Lindbohm P. Roughing
07:29 Goal Ilves: Heikkinen I. assists: Engberg T. 1-2
09:19 Goal TPS Turku: Virtanen J. assists: Lindbohm P., Yliniemi S. 2-2
12:08 2 min Ilves: Hynninen T. Tripping
16:07 2 min Ilves: Strand A. Cross checking

3rd period2-1

04:29 2 min TPS Turku: — Too many men on the ice
11:40 Goal TPS Turku: Yliniemi S. assists: Binner A., Ikonen Jo. 3-2
17:23 2 min TPS Turku: Rafkin R. Delay of game
17:35 Goal ENG TPS Turku: Munkki V. 4-2
19:02 Goal PPG Ilves: Henman L. assists: Strand A., Jarvinen J. 4-3

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

3-game winning streak for TPS Turku coming into this game.
Odds moved: the odds on TPS Turku dropped from 1.85 to 1.65 since they were first published.
In goal: Makiniemi E. for TPS Turku (6-3-1 in the last 10 starts), Rifalk C. for Ilves (6-3-1 in the last 10 starts).
5-1-0 at home for TPS Turku this season.
4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Ilves.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (TUR)	1.98	1.98	No change
1X2: X (draw)	3.65	3.65	No change
1X2: 2 (ILV)	2.77	2.77	No change
Over/Under line	5	5	No change
Handicap TUR	−0.5	−0.5	No change

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

Liiga standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Lukko	19	14	4	1	40	1.053	53	36	+17
2	Ilves	20	13	6	1	37	.925	52	39	+13
3	Jukurit	20	13	6	1	36	.900	49	40	+9
4	JYP	17	12	4	1	35	1.029	59	48	+11
5	Assat	20	11	7	2	34	.850	46	48	−2
6	SaiPa	18	12	5	1	34	.944	52	38	+14
7	Karpat	20	11	5	4	33	.825	53	52	+1
8	TPS Turku	19	10	7	2	31	.816	53	48	+5
9	Kiekko-Espoo	20	10	7	3	31	.775	61	49	+12
10	Tappara	19	9	7	3	28	.737	51	46	+5
11	IFK Helsinki	19	8	7	4	27	.711	53	56	−3
12	KalPa	18	8	9	1	25	.694	46	41	+5
13	Pelicans	17	8	8	1	24	.706	40	38	+2
14	Hameenlinna	20	9	11	0	24	.600	42	55	−13
15	Vaasan Sport	18	6	10	2	19	.528	33	53	−20
16	Jokerit	18	4	10	4	15	.417	41	62	−21
17	KooKoo	20	3	15	2	10	.250	46	81	−35

Playoffs: Quarter-finals
Playoffs: 1/8-finals
Relegation

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

TPS Turku vs Ilves prediction

All predictions

Full game

1st period

Predicted final score

Score details