Union Dutchmen vs Providence Friars Prediction & Picks

NCAA Friday, October 16, 2026Fri · Oct 16

HomeUnion Dutchmen13-1-16th in the standingsWWLLW

23 AOT Puck drop 19:00 ET 3.351.65

1st 2nd 3rd OT

UNI 1 1 0 0

PRO 1 0 1 1

USAUSA

AwayProvidence Friars13-2-16th in the standingsWWLOTW

53%Union Dutchmen win · 42% in regulationUNI Overtime or shootout · 21%OT / SO 21% 47%Providence Friars win · 37% in regulationPRO

Chance to win · 42% and 37% in regulation

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Lost

O5.5 1.70

Confidence52%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 59%

Full game

1X2LostUnion3.55Confidence 51%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderLostO5.51.70Confidence 52%
HandicapWonProvidence +1.5Confidence 63%
Winner (incl. OT)LostUnion2.62Confidence 51%
Double chanceWonUnion or draw1.82Confidence 62%
Draw no betPushUnion2.65Confidence 51%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.08Confidence 82%

1st period

1st period 1X2LostUnion3.40Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonU2.5Confidence 71%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: form from only 2 games; an edge above the model’s usual ceiling.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Union 43

Providence

Final 2–3

Total goalsTotal 7 Actual 5

Draw after 60 minDraw 21% Went to overtime

UNI to winTo win 53% PRO won

Score details

Correct scoreLost4–3After 60 min2–22%chance
1st period correct scoreLost1–01st period1–115%chance
Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 2 goals31%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 4-3
By period 1-0, 1-1, 2-2
Likeliest 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%), 6-5 (0%)

Last five games

Union 3-2-0

Win, 7–1 against Alaska Nanooks, Oct 10.
Win, 4–2 at Army Black Knights, Oct 3.
Loss, 2–5 at Princeton Tigers, Mar 14.
Loss, 2–5 at Princeton Tigers, Mar 13.
Win, 9–0 against Brown Bears, Mar 7.

Providence 3-1-1

Win, 4–0 against Clarkson Golden Knights, Oct 10.
Win, 6–2 against St. Lawrence Saints, Oct 9.
Loss, 2–5 against Quinnipiac Bobcats, Mar 26.
Overtime loss, 2–3 against Merrimack Warriors, after overtime, Mar 14.
Win, 3–1 against Connecticut Huskies, Mar 7.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (UNI)	3.35	3.35	No change
1X2: X (draw)	3.80	3.80	No change
1X2: 2 (PRO)	1.65	1.65	No change
Over/Under line	5.5	5.5	No change
Handicap UNI	+1.5	+1.5	No change

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

NCAA standings

NCAA · ECAC

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%
1	Quinnipiac Bobcats	29	24	0	0	116	2.000
2	Harvard Crimson	25	17	1	0	92	1.840
3	Cornell Big Red	25	16	1	1	92	1.840
4	St. Lawrence Saints	30	15	1	0	76	1.267
5	Colgate Raiders	30	13	2	1	86	1.433
6	Union Dutchmen	30	13	1	1	76	1.267
7	Clarkson Golden Knights	30	13	3	1	82	1.367
8	Princeton Tigers	25	11	2	0	73	1.460
9	Rensselaer Engineers	30	12	2	0	74	1.233
10	Brown Bears	25	9	2	0	59	1.180
11	Yale Bulldogs	25	5	1	1	43	.860
12	Dartmouth Big Green	25	4	4	0	60	1.200

NCAA · Hockey East

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%
1	Boston University Terriers	28	20	0	0	113	2.018
2	Connecticut Huskies	30	18	2	0	98	1.633
3	Massachusetts Lowell	28	15	1	2	74	1.321
4	Northeastern Huskies	29	13	2	0	90	1.552
5	Merrimack Warriors	29	16	4	1	82	1.414
6	Providence Friars	30	13	2	1	92	1.533
7	Maine Black Bears	29	13	1	1	76	1.310
8	Massachusetts Minutemen	27	10	3	0	76	1.407
9	Boston College Eagles	28	10	1	2	75	1.339
10	New Hampshire Wildcats	30	11	3	0	67	1.117
11	Vermont Catamounts	29	9	2	1	56	.966

Pts points, on the league’s own system. The table follows the league’s own order. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · +/− difference.

Union Dutchmen host Providence Friars in the NCAA on Friday, October 16, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.

Union Dutchmen vs Providence Friars prediction