Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Utah Mammoth 5–, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
AOT
Puck drop 20:00 ET
1X2 odds up 2.011X2 odds down 2.90
Delta Center (Salt Lake City, UT) · USADelta Center (Salt Lake City, UT)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
OT
UTA
2
2
0
1
TBL
3
1
0
0
56%Utah win · 44% in regulationUTA
Overtime or shootout · 22%OT / SO 22%
44%Tampa Bay win · 34% in regulationTBL
Chance to win · 44% and 34% in regulation
Vejmelka K.StartedSV 87.1% · GAA 3.00 · 6-4-0
Hildeby D.StartedSV 90.2% · GAA 2.80 · 5-3-2
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Double chance
Won
Mammoth or draw
odds up 1.35
Confidence69%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2LostMammoth2.10Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostU7.5odds up 1.36Confidence 70%
- HandicapWonLightning +1.51.46Confidence 66%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonMammoth1.65Confidence 57%
- Best tip of the game: Double chanceWonMammoth or drawodds up 1.35Confidence 69%
- Draw no betPushMammothodds down 1.65Confidence 60%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.06Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostMammothodds down 2.60Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds up 1.66Confidence 56%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Mammoth 3–2
Lightning
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 9
Draw after 60 minDraw
22%
Went to overtime
Utah to winTo win
56%
UTA won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min4–43%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period2–38%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 5 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (3%), 4-3 (2%), 2-1 (2%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Utah Mammoth
Tampa Bay Lightning
Utah Mammoth
Tampa Bay Lightning
Season recordUtah Mammoth 7-4-0Tampa Bay Lightning 7-3-0
Home / road splitUtah Mammoth 3-1-0Tampa Bay Lightning 2-3-0
StreakUtah Mammoth L1Tampa Bay Lightning L1
RestUtah Mammoth 1 dayTampa Bay Lightning Back-to-back
Goals forUtah Mammoth 3.7Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4
Goals againstUtah Mammoth 3.3Tampa Bay Lightning 2.9
In the standingsUtah Mammoth 5thTampa Bay Lightning 3rd
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameUtah Mammoth −0.1Tampa Bay Lightning +0.5
Goals forUtah Mammoth 3.5Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4
Goals againstUtah Mammoth 3.6Tampa Bay Lightning 2.9
Shots on goalUtah Mammoth 30.4Tampa Bay Lightning 30.0
Shots againstUtah Mammoth 23.1Tampa Bay Lightning 23.9
Shooting %Utah Mammoth 11.5%Tampa Bay Lightning 11.3%
Save %Utah Mammoth 85.3%Tampa Bay Lightning 89.1%
Power-play %Utah Mammoth 30.2%Tampa Bay Lightning 10.6%
Penalty kill %Utah Mammoth 71.4%Tampa Bay Lightning 83.3%
Faceoff %Utah Mammoth 51.5%Tampa Bay Lightning 50.0%
Penalty minutesUtah Mammoth 10.4Tampa Bay Lightning 8.4
HitsUtah Mammoth 26.3Tampa Bay Lightning 21.7
Blocked shotsUtah Mammoth 18.5Tampa Bay Lightning 17.3
Per game · UTA at home, TBL away
Goal differential per gameUtah Mammoth −0.2Tampa Bay Lightning −0.3
Goals forUtah Mammoth 3.6Tampa Bay Lightning 2.5
Goals againstUtah Mammoth 3.8Tampa Bay Lightning 2.8
Shots on goalUtah Mammoth 26.9Tampa Bay Lightning 24.1
Shots againstUtah Mammoth 25.4Tampa Bay Lightning 24.5
Shooting %Utah Mammoth 13.4%Tampa Bay Lightning 10.4%
Save %Utah Mammoth 86.2%Tampa Bay Lightning 89.8%
Power-play %Utah Mammoth 20.0%Tampa Bay Lightning 7.7%
Penalty kill %Utah Mammoth 74.3%Tampa Bay Lightning 93.0%
Faceoff %Utah Mammoth 52.0%Tampa Bay Lightning 46.8%
Penalty minutesUtah Mammoth 7.9Tampa Bay Lightning 15.7
HitsUtah Mammoth 32.0Tampa Bay Lightning 26.3
Blocked shotsUtah Mammoth 15.7Tampa Bay Lightning 16.9
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Mammoth 1–3
Lightning
Goals a gameGoals
6.5
UTA 2.0 · TBL 4.5
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
2 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 4
All decided in regulation
- Jan 26, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Utah Mammoth 0.
- Nov 2, 2025: Utah Mammoth 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4.
- Mar 27, 2025: Tampa Bay Lightning 8, Utah Mammoth 0.
- Mar 22, 2025: Utah Mammoth 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 4.
Last five games
Mammoth
3-2-0 - Loss, 3–5 at Seattle Kraken, Oct 22. Odds: Kraken 3.50, Mammoth 1.76.
- Win, 5–4 against Pittsburgh Penguins, Oct 19. Odds: Mammoth 1.76, Penguins 3.50.
- Loss, 2–6 against Edmonton Oilers, Oct 17. Odds: Mammoth 2.05, Oilers 2.90.
- Win, 4–2 at Edmonton Oilers, Oct 15. Odds: Oilers 2.60, Mammoth 2.38.
- Win, 5–4 against Toronto Maple Leafs, Oct 13. Odds: Mammoth 2.01, Maple Leafs 3.12.
Lightning
3-2-0 - Loss, 3–6 at Colorado Avalanche, Oct 23. Odds: Avalanche 2.15, Lightning 2.70.
- Win, 6–2 at Vegas Golden Knights, Oct 20. Odds: Golden Knights 2.40, Lightning 2.40.
- Win, 4–2 against Vancouver Canucks, Oct 17. Odds: Lightning 1.50, Canucks 5.30.
- Win, 4–3 against Seattle Kraken, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Lightning 1.60, Kraken 4.25.
- Loss, 1–4 at New York Rangers, Oct 13. Odds: Rangers 3.18, Lightning 2.04.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-3
- 02:32 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Truchon-Viel J. Slashing
- 05:10 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Guentzel J. 0-1
- 07:02 Goal Utah Mammoth: Yamamoto K. 1-1
- 07:42 2 min Utah Mammoth: McBain J. Delay of game
- 10:06 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Holmberg P. assists: Cernak E., McDonagh R. 1-2
- 11:23 2 min Utah Mammoth: Keller C. Interference
- 12:42 Goal PPG Tampa Bay Lightning: Point B. assists: Kucherov N., D'Astous C. 1-3
- 17:19 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Lilleberg E. Interference
- 17:39 Goal PPG Utah Mammoth: Guenther D. assists: Sergachyov M., Keller C. 2-3
2nd period2-1
- 02:24 2 min Utah Mammoth: Sergachyov M. Tripping
- 05:32 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Geekie C. assists: Sabourin S. 2-4
- 12:33 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov N. Hooking
- 14:39 Goal Utah Mammoth: Lee A. assists: Weegar M., Trocheck V. 3-4
- 17:02 Goal Utah Mammoth: Simashev D. assists: Peeke A., Trocheck V. 4-4
3rd period0-0
- 15:27 2 min Utah Mammoth: Stenlund K. Roughing
- 15:27 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: D'Astous C. Roughing
Overtime1-0
- 01:43 Goal Utah Mammoth: Simashev D. assists: Hayton B., Vejmelka K. 5-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for Tampa Bay Lightning, who played yesterday.
- In goal: Vejmelka K. for Utah Mammoth (6-4-0 in the last 10 starts), Hildeby D. for Tampa Bay Lightning (5-3-2 in the last 10 starts).
- The total moved up from 5.5 to 6.5 since it was first published.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Tampa Bay Lightning.
- +1.2 goals at home — Utah Mammoth averaged 4.5 at home and 3.3 away this season.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (UTA) | 1.96 | 2.01 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (TBL) | 3.05 | 2.90 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 6.5 | Line raised |
| Handicap UTA | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Central Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Wild |
20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 30 | .750 | 65 | 44 | +21 |
| 2 |  Colorado Avalanche |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 78 | 59 | +19 |
| 3 |  Nashville Predators |
18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 23 | .639 | 55 | 51 | +4 |
| 4 |  Dallas Stars |
17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 22 | .647 | 49 | 41 | +8 |
| 5 | Utah Mammoth |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| 6 |  Winnipeg Jets |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 53 | 65 | −12 |
| 7 |  St. Louis Blues |
18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 18 | .500 | 53 | 55 | −2 |
| 8 |  Chicago Blackhawks |
18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 9 | .250 | 39 | 76 | −37 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Utah Mammoth host Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.