Vegas Golden Knights vs Ottawa Senators prediction
Vegas Golden Knights 4–, Ottawa Senators 1
FT
Puck drop 22:00 ET
1X2 1.911X2 odds up 3.25
T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV) · USAT-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
VGK
0
1
3
OTT
0
0
1
55%Vegas win · 43% in regulationVGK
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
45%Ottawa win · 34% in regulationOTT
Chance to win · 43% and 34% in regulation
Hill A.StartedSV 87.6% · GAA 3.11 · 7-1-2
Johansson J.StartedSV 85.9% · GAA 4.20 · 5-4-1
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Lost
Senators +2.5
odds up 1.26
Confidence72%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2WonGolden Knights2.02Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonU7.5odds up 1.33Confidence 70%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapLostSenators +2.5odds up 1.26Confidence 72%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonGolden Knightsodds down 1.62Confidence 56%
- Double chanceWonGolden Knights or drawodds down 1.36Confidence 68%
- Draw no betWonGolden Knightsodds down 1.61Confidence 58%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.07Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostGolden Knightsodds down 2.49Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds down 1.72Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Golden Knights 4–2
Senators
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 5
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Vegas to winTo win
55%
VGK won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–2After 60 min4–14%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period0–08%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-2
- By period 2-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-2 (4%), 3-2 (3%), 3-1 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Vegas Golden Knights
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights
Ottawa Senators
Season recordVegas Golden Knights 8-4-1Ottawa Senators 8-4-0
Home / road splitVegas Golden Knights 5-2-0Ottawa Senators 3-2-0
StreakVegas Golden Knights L3Ottawa Senators W1
RestVegas Golden Knights 2 daysOttawa Senators 2 days
Goals forVegas Golden Knights 3.6Ottawa Senators 3.2
Goals againstVegas Golden Knights 2.9Ottawa Senators 2.8
In the standingsVegas Golden Knights 2ndOttawa Senators 4th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameVegas Golden Knights +0.5Ottawa Senators −0.2
Goals forVegas Golden Knights 3.5Ottawa Senators 2.9
Goals againstVegas Golden Knights 3.0Ottawa Senators 3.1
Shots on goalVegas Golden Knights 29.2Ottawa Senators 24.9
Shots againstVegas Golden Knights 25.7Ottawa Senators 25.7
Shooting %Vegas Golden Knights 12.0%Ottawa Senators 11.6%
Save %Vegas Golden Knights 88.7%Ottawa Senators 89.5%
Power-play %Vegas Golden Knights 16.7%Ottawa Senators 10.3%
Penalty kill %Vegas Golden Knights 74.3%Ottawa Senators 83.7%
Faceoff %Vegas Golden Knights 49.5%Ottawa Senators 50.7%
Penalty minutesVegas Golden Knights 9.3Ottawa Senators 11.3
HitsVegas Golden Knights 21.8Ottawa Senators 22.1
Blocked shotsVegas Golden Knights 13.7Ottawa Senators 15.6
Per game · VGK at home, OTT away
Goal differential per gameVegas Golden Knights +0.3Ottawa Senators −0.1
Goals forVegas Golden Knights 3.5Ottawa Senators 2.6
Goals againstVegas Golden Knights 3.2Ottawa Senators 2.7
Shots on goalVegas Golden Knights 30.5Ottawa Senators 25.7
Shots againstVegas Golden Knights 25.3Ottawa Senators 30.0
Shooting %Vegas Golden Knights 11.5%Ottawa Senators 10.1%
Save %Vegas Golden Knights 88.1%Ottawa Senators 91.7%
Power-play %Vegas Golden Knights 20.5%Ottawa Senators 7.8%
Penalty kill %Vegas Golden Knights 80.0%Ottawa Senators 83.3%
Faceoff %Vegas Golden Knights 49.5%Ottawa Senators 55.0%
Penalty minutesVegas Golden Knights 7.4Ottawa Senators 11.0
HitsVegas Golden Knights 29.7Ottawa Senators 28.5
Blocked shotsVegas Golden Knights 13.4Ottawa Senators 13.9
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Golden Knights 2–2
Senators
Goals a gameGoals
7.5
VGK 3.3 · OTT 4.3
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
3 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
1 of 4
1 in a shootout
- Jan 25, 2026: Ottawa Senators 7, Vegas Golden Knights 1.
- Nov 26, 2025: Vegas Golden Knights 3, Ottawa Senators 4, after a shootout.
- Nov 21, 2024: Ottawa Senators 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3.
- Oct 25, 2024: Vegas Golden Knights 6, Ottawa Senators 4.
Last five games
Golden Knights
2-2-1 - Overtime loss, 1–2 at Columbus Blue Jackets, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Blue Jackets 2.70, Golden Knights 2.15.
- Loss, 2–6 at St. Louis Blues, Oct 22. Odds: Blues 2.65, Golden Knights 2.20.
- Loss, 2–6 against Tampa Bay Lightning, Oct 20. Odds: Golden Knights 2.40, Lightning 2.40.
- Win, 6–2 against Pittsburgh Penguins, Oct 17. Odds: Golden Knights 1.72, Penguins 3.55.
- Win, 6–2 against Calgary Flames, Oct 15. Odds: Golden Knights 1.64, Flames 4.72.
Senators
3-2-0 - Win, 7–4 against New York Rangers, Oct 24. Odds: Senators 2.15, Rangers 2.75.
- Loss, 2–6 against San Jose Sharks, Oct 22. Odds: Senators 2.05, Sharks 2.85.
- Win, 5–1 against Florida Panthers, Oct 21. Odds: Senators 2.35, Panthers 2.52.
- Loss, 1–3 at Philadelphia Flyers, Oct 17. Odds: Flyers 3.08, Senators 2.03.
- Win, 2–1 against New York Islanders, after a shootout, Oct 15. Odds: Senators 1.91, Islanders 3.25.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-0
- 19:48 2 min Vegas Golden Knights: Howden B. Interference
2nd period1-0
- 06:50 2 min Ottawa Senators: Zub A. Interference
- 18:11 2 min Ottawa Senators: Amadio M. Holding
- 19:49 Goal PPG Vegas Golden Knights: Bowman B. assists: Barbashev I., Theodore S. 1-0
- 20:00 2 min Vegas Golden Knights: Barbashev I. Roughing
- 20:00 2 min Vegas Golden Knights: Lauzon J. Roughing
- 20:00 2 min Ottawa Senators: Cozens D. Roughing
3rd period3-1
- 00:34 Goal PPG Ottawa Senators: Pinto S. assists: Batherson D. 1-1
- 08:01 Goal Vegas Golden Knights: Lavoie R. assists: Dowd N., Heinola V. 2-1
- 09:38 2 min Vegas Golden Knights: Lauzon J. Kneeing
- 18:00 Goal ENG Vegas Golden Knights: Karlsson W. assists: Connelly T., Marner M. 3-1
- 19:53 Goal ENG Vegas Golden Knights: Eichel J. assists: Stone M. 4-1
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 3-game losing streak for Vegas Golden Knights coming into this game.
- In goal: Hill A. for Vegas Golden Knights (7-1-2 in the last 10 starts), Johansson J. for Ottawa Senators (5-4-1 in the last 10 starts).
- +0.8 goals at home — Vegas Golden Knights averaged 4.0 at home and 3.2 away this season.
- Head-to-head level at 2-2 after the last 4 meetings.
- 7.5 goals per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the total is 6.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (VGK) | 1.91 | 1.91 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (OTT) | 3.20 | 3.25 | Drifted |
| Over/Under line | 6.5 | 6.5 | No change |
| Handicap VGK | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Pacific Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Edmonton Oilers |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | .763 | 78 | 56 | +22 |
| 2 | Vegas Golden Knights |
19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 26 | .684 | 64 | 51 | +13 |
| 3 |  Anaheim Ducks |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 69 | 66 | +3 |
| 4 |  Seattle Kraken |
16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 19 | .594 | 57 | 57 | 0 |
| 5 |  Calgary Flames |
18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 17 | .472 | 46 | 63 | −17 |
| 6 |  San Jose Sharks |
20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | .425 | 51 | 71 | −20 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Kings |
16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 12 | .375 | 45 | 55 | −10 |
| 8 |  Vancouver Canucks |
20 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 7 | .175 | 56 | 90 | −34 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 | Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Vegas Golden Knights host Ottawa Senators in the NHL on Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.