Vegas Golden Knights vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction
Vegas Golden Knights 6–, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
FT
Puck drop 22:00 ET
1X2 1.721X2 3.55
T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV) · USAT-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
VGK
3
2
1
PIT
0
1
1
64%Vegas win · 53% in regulationVGK
Overtime or shootout · 21%OT / SO 21%
36%Pittsburgh win · 26% in regulationPIT
Chance to win · 53% and 26% in regulation
Hill A.StartedSV 87.7% · GAA 3.00 · 6-1-3
Murashov S.StartedSV 90.1% · GAA 2.67 · 2-4-3
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Lost
Penguins +2.5
odds down 1.41
Confidence63%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 66%Full game
- 1X2WonGolden Knightsodds up 1.67Confidence 54%
- Over/UnderLostU7.51.42Confidence 69%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapLostPenguins +2.5odds down 1.41Confidence 63%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonGolden Knightsodds up 1.40Confidence 65%
- Double chanceWonGolden Knights or drawodds up 1.22Confidence 75%
- Draw no betWonGolden Knightsodds up 1.34Confidence 69%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.06Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2WonGolden Knightsodds up 2.19Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.51.64Confidence 56%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; the odds drifted 4% since they opened; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Golden Knights 4–2
Penguins
Total goalsTotal
6
Actual 8
Draw after 60 minDraw
21%
Decided in regulation
Vegas to winTo win
64%
VGK won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost4–2After 60 min6–24%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period3–09%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goalsTie · 1st & 2nd31%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 4-2
- By period 2-0, 0-1, 2-1
- Likeliest 4-2 (4%), 3-2 (3%), 3-1 (3%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Vegas Golden Knights
Pittsburgh Penguins
Vegas Golden Knights
Pittsburgh Penguins
Season recordVegas Golden Knights 7-2-0Pittsburgh Penguins 3-4-1
Home / road splitVegas Golden Knights 4-1-0Pittsburgh Penguins 1-3-1
StreakVegas Golden Knights W2Pittsburgh Penguins L2
RestVegas Golden Knights 1 dayPittsburgh Penguins Back-to-back
Goals forVegas Golden Knights 4.0Pittsburgh Penguins 3.4
Goals againstVegas Golden Knights 2.4Pittsburgh Penguins 3.4
In the standingsVegas Golden Knights 2ndPittsburgh Penguins 8th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameVegas Golden Knights +1.0Pittsburgh Penguins 0.0
Goals forVegas Golden Knights 3.5Pittsburgh Penguins 2.9
Goals againstVegas Golden Knights 2.5Pittsburgh Penguins 2.9
Shots on goalVegas Golden Knights 30.1Pittsburgh Penguins 29.3
Shots againstVegas Golden Knights 25.0Pittsburgh Penguins 28.1
Shooting %Vegas Golden Knights 11.6%Pittsburgh Penguins 9.9%
Save %Vegas Golden Knights 90.8%Pittsburgh Penguins 90.0%
Power-play %Vegas Golden Knights 18.8%Pittsburgh Penguins 10.5%
Penalty kill %Vegas Golden Knights 85.3%Pittsburgh Penguins 90.6%
Faceoff %Vegas Golden Knights 51.4%Pittsburgh Penguins 45.8%
Penalty minutesVegas Golden Knights 8.8Pittsburgh Penguins 6.4
HitsVegas Golden Knights 20.6Pittsburgh Penguins 16.0
Blocked shotsVegas Golden Knights 14.2Pittsburgh Penguins 13.7
Per game · VGK at home, PIT away
Goal differential per gameVegas Golden Knights +0.6Pittsburgh Penguins −0.7
Goals forVegas Golden Knights 3.4Pittsburgh Penguins 2.8
Goals againstVegas Golden Knights 2.8Pittsburgh Penguins 3.5
Shots on goalVegas Golden Knights 30.2Pittsburgh Penguins 28.8
Shots againstVegas Golden Knights 26.5Pittsburgh Penguins 29.0
Shooting %Vegas Golden Knights 11.3%Pittsburgh Penguins 9.7%
Save %Vegas Golden Knights 90.2%Pittsburgh Penguins 89.3%
Power-play %Vegas Golden Knights 20.5%Pittsburgh Penguins 11.9%
Penalty kill %Vegas Golden Knights 86.7%Pittsburgh Penguins 84.6%
Faceoff %Vegas Golden Knights 50.6%Pittsburgh Penguins 44.5%
Penalty minutesVegas Golden Knights 7.1Pittsburgh Penguins 7.8
HitsVegas Golden Knights 31.0Pittsburgh Penguins 18.1
Blocked shotsVegas Golden Knights 13.3Pittsburgh Penguins 13.5
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Golden Knights 3–2
Penguins
Goals a gameGoals
5.4
VGK 3.0 · PIT 2.4
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
1 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
1 of 5
1 in overtime
- Nov 3, 2026: Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3.
- Mar 12, 2026: Vegas Golden Knights 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 2.
- Mar 1, 2026: Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Vegas Golden Knights 0.
- Mar 11, 2025: Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2, after overtime.
- Mar 7, 2025: Vegas Golden Knights 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 0.
Last five games
Golden Knights
4-1-0 - Win, 6–2 against Calgary Flames, Oct 15. Odds: Golden Knights 1.64, Flames 4.72.
- Win, 5–2 at Nashville Predators, Oct 13. Odds: Predators 2.84, Golden Knights 2.23.
- Loss, 2–4 at Minnesota Wild, Oct 12. Odds: Wild 2.51, Golden Knights 2.49.
- Win, 2–1 against Los Angeles Kings, after overtime, Oct 10. Odds: Golden Knights 1.86, Kings 3.25.
- Win, 4–3 against Toronto Maple Leafs, after a shootout, Oct 8.
Penguins
1-3-1 - Loss, 2–5 at Colorado Avalanche, Oct 16. Odds: Avalanche 1.75, Penguins 3.50.
- Loss, 3–5 at Chicago Blackhawks, Oct 13. Odds: Blackhawks 3.10, Penguins 1.95.
- Win, 2–1 against Dallas Stars, after a shootout, Oct 10. Odds: Penguins 2.60, Stars 2.30.
- Overtime loss, 2–3 at Columbus Blue Jackets, after a shootout, Oct 9. Odds: Blue Jackets 2.30, Penguins 2.60.
- Loss, 3–5 at Washington Capitals, Oct 7.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period3-0
- 01:06 Goal Vegas Golden Knights: Andersson R. assists: Eichel J., Stone M. 1-0
- 04:02 Goal Vegas Golden Knights: Hanifin N. assists: Eichel J., Stone M. 2-0
- 05:39 5 min Pittsburgh Penguins: Carlile D. Fighting
- 05:39 5 min Vegas Golden Knights: Lauzon J. Fighting
- 15:57 2 min Pittsburgh Penguins: Crosby S. Tripping
- 17:46 Goal PPG Vegas Golden Knights: Stone M. assists: Connelly T., Marner M. 3-0
2nd period2-1
- 05:33 2 min Vegas Golden Knights: Hanifin N. Interference
- 05:54 Goal PPG Pittsburgh Penguins: Crosby S. assists: Novak T., Karlsson E. 3-1
- 07:05 Goal Vegas Golden Knights: Connelly T. 4-1
- 09:14 2 min Vegas Golden Knights: Howden B. Tripping
- 09:14 2 min Pittsburgh Penguins: Korczak K. Holding
- 11:17 Goal Vegas Golden Knights: Theodore S. assists: McNabb B., Marner M. 5-1
3rd period1-1
- 04:43 Goal Pittsburgh Penguins: Koivunen V. assists: Malkin E., Novak T. 5-2
- 17:47 Goal ENG Vegas Golden Knights: Howden B. 6-2
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for Pittsburgh Penguins, who played yesterday.
- 1-3-1 away for Pittsburgh Penguins this season.
- In goal: Hill A. for Vegas Golden Knights (6-1-3 in the last 10 starts), Murashov S. for Pittsburgh Penguins (2-4-3 in the last 9 starts).
- 4-1-0 at home for Vegas Golden Knights this season.
- Goal differential gap of 1.0 per game — Vegas Golden Knights +1.0, Pittsburgh Penguins 0.0 over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (VGK) | 1.72 | 1.72 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.45 | 4.45 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (PIT) | 3.55 | 3.55 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 6 | 6.5 | Line raised |
| Handicap VGK | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Pacific Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Edmonton Oilers |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | .763 | 78 | 56 | +22 |
| 2 | Vegas Golden Knights |
19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 26 | .684 | 64 | 51 | +13 |
| 3 |  Anaheim Ducks |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 69 | 66 | +3 |
| 4 |  Seattle Kraken |
16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 19 | .594 | 57 | 57 | 0 |
| 5 |  Calgary Flames |
18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 17 | .472 | 46 | 63 | −17 |
| 6 |  San Jose Sharks |
20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | .425 | 51 | 71 | −20 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Kings |
16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 12 | .375 | 45 | 55 | −10 |
| 8 |  Vancouver Canucks |
20 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 7 | .175 | 56 | 90 | −34 |
Regular Season · Metropolitan Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Carolina Hurricanes |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 30 | .789 | 78 | 45 | +33 |
| 2 |  New Jersey Devils |
19 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 26 | .684 | 68 | 55 | +13 |
| 3 |  New York Rangers |
19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 21 | .553 | 56 | 55 | +1 |
| 4 |  Washington Capitals |
16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 20 | .625 | 56 | 53 | +3 |
| 5 |  New York Islanders |
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .529 | 49 | 52 | −3 |
| 6 |  Philadelphia Flyers |
20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | .375 | 45 | 66 | −21 |
| 7 |  Columbus Blue Jackets |
16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 14 | .438 | 41 | 51 | −10 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 14 | .389 | 58 | 65 | −7 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Vegas Golden Knights host Pittsburgh Penguins in the NHL on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.