Vegas Golden Knights vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Vegas Golden Knights 2–, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
FT
Puck drop 22:30 ET
1X2 2.401X2 2.40
T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV) · USAT-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, NV)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
VGK
2
0
0
TBL
2
3
1
57%Vegas win · 45% in regulationVGK
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
43%Tampa Bay win · 32% in regulationTBL
Chance to win · 45% and 32% in regulation
Hart C.StartedSV 89.9% · GAA 2.50 · 5-5-0
Vasilevski A.StartedSV 89.4% · GAA 2.20 · 6-4-0
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Double chance
Lost
Golden Knights or draw
odds up 1.42
Confidence70%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2LostGolden Knightsodds up 2.27Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.35Confidence 70%
- HandicapWonLightning +1.5odds down 1.38Confidence 66%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostGolden Knightsodds up 1.78Confidence 59%
- Best tip of the game: Double chanceLostGolden Knights or drawodds up 1.42Confidence 70%
- Draw no betLostGolden Knightsodds up 1.75Confidence 61%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.07Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostGolden Knightsodds up 2.70Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.75Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the odds drifted 4% since they opened; the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Golden Knights 3–2
Lightning
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 8
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Vegas to winTo win
57%
TBL won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min2–63%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period2–27%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (3%), 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Vegas Golden Knights
Tampa Bay Lightning
Vegas Golden Knights
Tampa Bay Lightning
Season recordVegas Golden Knights 8-2-0Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2-0
Home / road splitVegas Golden Knights 5-1-0Tampa Bay Lightning 1-2-0
StreakVegas Golden Knights W3Tampa Bay Lightning W2
RestVegas Golden Knights 2 daysTampa Bay Lightning 2 days
Goals forVegas Golden Knights 4.2Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1
Goals againstVegas Golden Knights 2.4Tampa Bay Lightning 2.6
In the standingsVegas Golden Knights 2ndTampa Bay Lightning 3rd
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameVegas Golden Knights +1.7Tampa Bay Lightning +0.4
Goals forVegas Golden Knights 4.1Tampa Bay Lightning 2.7
Goals againstVegas Golden Knights 2.4Tampa Bay Lightning 2.3
Shots on goalVegas Golden Knights 29.7Tampa Bay Lightning 30.8
Shots againstVegas Golden Knights 25.2Tampa Bay Lightning 22.1
Shooting %Vegas Golden Knights 13.8%Tampa Bay Lightning 8.8%
Save %Vegas Golden Knights 90.9%Tampa Bay Lightning 90.5%
Power-play %Vegas Golden Knights 20.8%Tampa Bay Lightning 9.1%
Penalty kill %Vegas Golden Knights 82.4%Tampa Bay Lightning 85.3%
Faceoff %Vegas Golden Knights 52.3%Tampa Bay Lightning 47.8%
Penalty minutesVegas Golden Knights 9.1Tampa Bay Lightning 8.0
HitsVegas Golden Knights 19.4Tampa Bay Lightning 24.5
Blocked shotsVegas Golden Knights 14.0Tampa Bay Lightning 16.9
Per game · VGK at home, TBL away
Goal differential per gameVegas Golden Knights +0.8Tampa Bay Lightning −1.0
Goals forVegas Golden Knights 3.5Tampa Bay Lightning 2.0
Goals againstVegas Golden Knights 2.7Tampa Bay Lightning 3.0
Shots on goalVegas Golden Knights 29.7Tampa Bay Lightning 24.2
Shots againstVegas Golden Knights 25.4Tampa Bay Lightning 24.8
Shooting %Vegas Golden Knights 11.8%Tampa Bay Lightning 8.3%
Save %Vegas Golden Knights 90.2%Tampa Bay Lightning 89.5%
Power-play %Vegas Golden Knights 21.6%Tampa Bay Lightning 6.2%
Penalty kill %Vegas Golden Knights 82.1%Tampa Bay Lightning 91.5%
Faceoff %Vegas Golden Knights 50.7%Tampa Bay Lightning 46.4%
Penalty minutesVegas Golden Knights 7.0Tampa Bay Lightning 16.1
HitsVegas Golden Knights 30.2Tampa Bay Lightning 26.6
Blocked shotsVegas Golden Knights 13.2Tampa Bay Lightning 15.1
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Golden Knights 1–3
Lightning
Goals a gameGoals
6.3
VGK 2.8 · TBL 3.5
Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0
2 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
1 of 4
1 in overtime
- Nov 6, 2025: Vegas Golden Knights 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6.
- Oct 26, 2025: Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Vegas Golden Knights 1, after overtime.
- Mar 23, 2025: Vegas Golden Knights 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.
- Oct 17, 2024: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3.
Last five games
Golden Knights
4-1-0 - Win, 6–2 against Pittsburgh Penguins, Oct 17. Odds: Golden Knights 1.72, Penguins 3.55.
- Win, 6–2 against Calgary Flames, Oct 15. Odds: Golden Knights 1.64, Flames 4.72.
- Win, 5–2 at Nashville Predators, Oct 13. Odds: Predators 2.84, Golden Knights 2.23.
- Loss, 2–4 at Minnesota Wild, Oct 12. Odds: Wild 2.51, Golden Knights 2.49.
- Win, 2–1 against Los Angeles Kings, after overtime, Oct 10. Odds: Golden Knights 1.86, Kings 3.25.
Lightning
4-1-0 - Win, 4–2 against Vancouver Canucks, Oct 17. Odds: Lightning 1.50, Canucks 5.30.
- Win, 4–3 against Seattle Kraken, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Lightning 1.60, Kraken 4.25.
- Loss, 1–4 at New York Rangers, Oct 13. Odds: Rangers 3.18, Lightning 2.04.
- Win, 5–3 at New York Islanders, Oct 10. Odds: Islanders 2.75, Lightning 2.20.
- Win, 3–2 against Minnesota Wild, Oct 8.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-2
- 03:32 2 min Vegas Golden Knights: Coghlan D. Holding
- 04:11 Goal PPG Tampa Bay Lightning: Hagel B. assists: D'Astous C., Kucherov N. 0-1
- 07:38 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Geekie C. Unsportsmanlike conduct
- 13:16 Goal Vegas Golden Knights: Barbashev I. assists: Marner M. 1-1
- 14:04 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Carlson J. 1-2
- 17:06 2 min Vegas Golden Knights: McNabb B. High sticking
- 18:30 Goal SHG Vegas Golden Knights: Stone M. assists: Bowman B. 2-2
2nd period0-3
- 01:18 2 min Vegas Golden Knights: Marner M. Tripping
- 01:41 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: D'Astous C. Interference
- 06:44 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Cirelli A. assists: Kucherov N. 2-3
- 10:09 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Cirelli A. 2-4
- 12:31 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Holmberg P. Holding
- 17:56 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Hedman V. 2-5
3rd period0-1
- 01:24 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Lilleberg E. Cross checking
- 05:16 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov N. 2-6
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- 3-game winning streak for Vegas Golden Knights coming into this game.
- In goal: Hart C. for Vegas Golden Knights (5-5-0 in the last 10 starts), Vasilevski A. for Tampa Bay Lightning (6-4-0 in the last 10 starts).
- 5-1-0 at home for Vegas Golden Knights this season.
- Goal differential gap of 1.3 per game — Vegas Golden Knights +1.7, Tampa Bay Lightning +0.4 over their recent games.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Tampa Bay Lightning.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (VGK) | 2.40 | 2.40 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.10 | 4.10 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (TBL) | 2.40 | 2.40 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 6 | Line raised |
| Handicap VGK | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Pacific Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Edmonton Oilers |
19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 29 | .763 | 78 | 56 | +22 |
| 2 | Vegas Golden Knights |
19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 26 | .684 | 64 | 51 | +13 |
| 3 |  Anaheim Ducks |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 69 | 66 | +3 |
| 4 |  Seattle Kraken |
16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 19 | .594 | 57 | 57 | 0 |
| 5 |  Calgary Flames |
18 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 17 | .472 | 46 | 63 | −17 |
| 6 |  San Jose Sharks |
20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | .425 | 51 | 71 | −20 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Kings |
16 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 12 | .375 | 45 | 55 | −10 |
| 8 |  Vancouver Canucks |
20 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 7 | .175 | 56 | 90 | −34 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Vegas Golden Knights host Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.