Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres prediction
Washington Capitals 4–, Buffalo Sabres 3
AOT
Puck drop 19:00 ET
1X2 odds up 2.201X2 odds down 2.60
Capital One Arena (Washington, DC) · USACapital One Arena (Washington, DC)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
OT
WSH
1
2
0
1
BUF
2
0
1
0
56%Washington win · 45% in regulationWSH
Overtime or shootout · 22%OT / SO 22%
44%Buffalo win · 33% in regulationBUF
Chance to win · 45% and 33% in regulation
Lindgren C.StartedSV 87.9% · GAA 3.70 · 4-5-1
Luukkonen U.StartedSV 87.5% · GAA 3.20 · 3-4-3
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Double chance
Won
Capitals or draw
odds up 1.42
Confidence69%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2LostCapitalsodds up 2.16Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonU7.5odds up 1.34Confidence 70%
- HandicapWonSabres +1.51.40Confidence 66%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonCapitalsodds up 1.72Confidence 58%
- Best tip of the game: Double chanceWonCapitals or drawodds up 1.42Confidence 69%
- Draw no betPushCapitalsodds up 1.71Confidence 60%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds down 1.06Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostCapitalsodds up 2.60Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.69Confidence 56%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Capitals 3–2
Sabres
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 7
Draw after 60 minDraw
22%
Went to overtime
Washington to winTo win
56%
WSH won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min3–33%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period1–28%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 3 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (3%), 4-3 (2%), 2-1 (2%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Washington Capitals
Buffalo Sabres
Washington Capitals
Buffalo Sabres
Season recordWashington Capitals 5-4-0Buffalo Sabres 4-4-2
Home / road splitWashington Capitals 4-2-0Buffalo Sabres 1-1-2
StreakWashington Capitals L1Buffalo Sabres L2
RestWashington Capitals 3 daysBuffalo Sabres 2 days
Goals forWashington Capitals 3.3Buffalo Sabres 2.8
Goals againstWashington Capitals 3.2Buffalo Sabres 3.7
In the standingsWashington Capitals 9thBuffalo Sabres 10th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameWashington Capitals +0.2Buffalo Sabres −0.8
Goals forWashington Capitals 3.2Buffalo Sabres 2.8
Goals againstWashington Capitals 3.0Buffalo Sabres 3.6
Shots on goalWashington Capitals 26.2Buffalo Sabres 27.0
Shots againstWashington Capitals 28.9Buffalo Sabres 25.6
Shooting %Washington Capitals 12.2%Buffalo Sabres 10.4%
Save %Washington Capitals 90.7%Buffalo Sabres 86.3%
Power-play %Washington Capitals 15.4%Buffalo Sabres 9.3%
Penalty kill %Washington Capitals 86.0%Buffalo Sabres 69.8%
Faceoff %Washington Capitals 50.9%Buffalo Sabres 46.7%
Penalty minutesWashington Capitals 9.7Buffalo Sabres 10.6
HitsWashington Capitals 20.3Buffalo Sabres 19.3
Blocked shotsWashington Capitals 13.1Buffalo Sabres 14.0
Per game · WSH at home, BUF away
Goal differential per gameWashington Capitals +1.0Buffalo Sabres +0.9
Goals forWashington Capitals 3.9Buffalo Sabres 4.0
Goals againstWashington Capitals 2.9Buffalo Sabres 3.1
Shots on goalWashington Capitals 26.6Buffalo Sabres 28.0
Shots againstWashington Capitals 27.6Buffalo Sabres 28.7
Shooting %Washington Capitals 14.7%Buffalo Sabres 14.3%
Save %Washington Capitals 89.9%Buffalo Sabres 89.9%
Power-play %Washington Capitals 19.4%Buffalo Sabres 10.8%
Penalty kill %Washington Capitals 88.9%Buffalo Sabres 82.5%
Faceoff %Washington Capitals 49.4%Buffalo Sabres 45.7%
Penalty minutesWashington Capitals 8.0Buffalo Sabres 16.0
HitsWashington Capitals 20.5Buffalo Sabres 23.3
Blocked shotsWashington Capitals 11.2Buffalo Sabres 11.8
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Capitals 2–3
Sabres
Goals a gameGoals
7.6
WSH 3.8 · BUF 3.8
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
4 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
2 of 5
2 in a shootout
- Apr 4, 2026: Washington Capitals 6, Buffalo Sabres 2.
- Mar 12, 2026: Buffalo Sabres 1, Washington Capitals 2.
- Nov 1, 2025: Buffalo Sabres 4, Washington Capitals 3, after a shootout.
- Mar 30, 2025: Washington Capitals 5, Buffalo Sabres 8.
- Jan 6, 2025: Buffalo Sabres 4, Washington Capitals 3, after a shootout.
Last five games
Capitals
2-3-0 - Loss, 2–5 against Los Angeles Kings, Oct 20. Odds: Capitals 1.98, Kings 3.15.
- Win, 4–2 against New Jersey Devils, Oct 17. Odds: Capitals 2.35, Devils 2.42.
- Win, 5–4 against Montreal Canadiens, Oct 14. Odds: Capitals 2.34, Canadiens 2.65.
- Loss, 2–4 at Carolina Hurricanes, Oct 13. Odds: Hurricanes 2.06, Capitals 3.12.
- Loss, 3–5 against Seattle Kraken, Oct 11. Odds: Capitals 1.81, Kraken 3.76.
Sabres
2-1-2 - Loss, 1–3 against Philadelphia Flyers, Oct 21. Odds: Sabres 1.75, Flyers 3.65.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 at Montreal Canadiens, after overtime, Oct 17. Odds: Canadiens 2.13, Sabres 2.82.
- Win, 5–4 at Toronto Maple Leafs, after overtime, Oct 15. Odds: Maple Leafs 2.27, Sabres 2.50.
- Overtime loss, 3–4 at Montreal Canadiens, after a shootout, Oct 13. Odds: Canadiens 2.06, Sabres 3.09.
- Win, 5–3 against Florida Panthers, Oct 12. Odds: Sabres 2.40, Panthers 2.60.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period1-2
- 06:27 Goal Buffalo Sabres: Quinn J. assists: Zellweger O., Benson Z. 0-1
- 10:36 Goal Buffalo Sabres: Doan J. assists: McLeod R. 0-2
- 16:10 Goal Washington Capitals: Tuch A. assists: Kyrou J. 1-2
2nd period2-0
- 00:55 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Samuelsson M. Slashing
- 02:59 Goal Washington Capitals: Strome D. assists: Kyrou J., Chychrun J. 2-2
- 14:46 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Zellweger O. Delay of game
- 17:24 Goal Washington Capitals: Strome D. assists: Sourdif J., Fehervary M. 3-2
3rd period0-1
- 02:20 Goal Buffalo Sabres: Ostlund N. assists: Power O., Dahlin R. 3-3
- 04:27 2 min Washington Capitals: Wilson T. Tripping
- 07:26 2 min Washington Capitals: Tuch A. Slashing
- 13:59 2 min Buffalo Sabres: Helenius K. High sticking
Overtime1-0
- 03:42 Goal Washington Capitals: Tuch A. assists: Strome D., Chychrun J. 4-3
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- In goal: Lindgren C. for Washington Capitals (4-5-1 in the last 10 starts), Luukkonen U. for Buffalo Sabres (3-4-3 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 1.0 per game — Washington Capitals +0.2, Buffalo Sabres −0.8 over their recent games.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Buffalo Sabres.
- Save % gap: Washington Capitals 90.7%, Buffalo Sabres 86.3% over their recent games.
- 7.6 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (WSH) | 2.15 | 2.20 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.25 | 4.25 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (BUF) | 2.65 | 2.60 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 6 | 6.5 | Line raised |
| Handicap WSH | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Carolina Hurricanes |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 30 | .789 | 78 | 45 | +33 |
| 2 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 3 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 4 |  New Jersey Devils |
19 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 26 | .684 | 68 | 55 | +13 |
| 5 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 6 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 7 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 8 |  New York Rangers |
19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 21 | .553 | 56 | 55 | +1 |
| 9 | Washington Capitals |
16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 20 | .625 | 56 | 53 | +3 |
| 10 | Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 11 |  New York Islanders |
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .529 | 49 | 52 | −3 |
| 12 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 13 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
| 14 |  Philadelphia Flyers |
20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | .375 | 45 | 66 | −21 |
| 15 |  Columbus Blue Jackets |
16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 14 | .438 | 41 | 51 | −10 |
| 16 |  Pittsburgh Penguins |
18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 14 | .389 | 58 | 65 | −7 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Washington Capitals host Buffalo Sabres in the NHL on Saturday, October 24, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.