Washington Capitals vs Dallas Stars prediction
Washington Capitals 5–, Dallas Stars 6
FT
Puck drop 19:00 ET
1X2 2.301X2 2.55
Capital One Arena (Washington, DC) · USACapital One Arena (Washington, DC)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
WSH
0
3
2
DAL
1
4
1
52%Washington win · 40% in regulationWSH
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
48%Dallas win · 37% in regulationDAL
Chance to win · 40% and 37% in regulation
Thompson L.StartedSV 89.9% · GAA 2.80 · 6-4-0
Oettinger J.StartedSV 92.3% · GAA 1.60 · 7-2-1
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Over/Under
Won
O4.5
odds up 1.40
Confidence70%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 61%Full game
- 1X2LostCapitalsodds down 2.41Confidence 51%
- Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.5odds up 1.40Confidence 70%
- HandicapWonStars +1.5odds down 1.32Confidence 67%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostCapitalsodds up 1.80Confidence 52%
- Double chanceLostCapitals or drawodds down 1.50Confidence 66%
- Draw no betLostCapitalsodds down 1.88Confidence 53%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.08Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostCapitals2.80Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds up 1.81Confidence 54%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Capitals 3–2
Stars
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 11
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Washington to winTo win
52%
DAL won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min5–63%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period0–17%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals2nd · 7 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (3%), 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Washington Capitals
Dallas Stars
Washington Capitals
Dallas Stars
Season recordWashington Capitals 8-5-0Dallas Stars 8-5-1
Home / road splitWashington Capitals 6-3-0Dallas Stars 3-1-1
StreakWashington Capitals L1Dallas Stars W1
RestWashington Capitals 1 dayDallas Stars 2 days
Goals forWashington Capitals 3.4Dallas Stars 2.7
Goals againstWashington Capitals 3.2Dallas Stars 2.2
In the standingsWashington Capitals 4thDallas Stars 4th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameWashington Capitals −0.1Dallas Stars +0.3
Goals forWashington Capitals 3.3Dallas Stars 2.7
Goals againstWashington Capitals 3.4Dallas Stars 2.4
Shots on goalWashington Capitals 28.6Dallas Stars 26.0
Shots againstWashington Capitals 27.1Dallas Stars 22.4
Shooting %Washington Capitals 11.5%Dallas Stars 10.4%
Save %Washington Capitals 88.6%Dallas Stars 89.7%
Power-play %Washington Capitals 12.5%Dallas Stars 20.0%
Penalty kill %Washington Capitals 76.9%Dallas Stars 97.6%
Faceoff %Washington Capitals 49.0%Dallas Stars 54.8%
Penalty minutesWashington Capitals 8.6Dallas Stars 10.1
HitsWashington Capitals 22.9Dallas Stars 18.8
Blocked shotsWashington Capitals 12.1Dallas Stars 13.1
Per game · WSH at home, DAL away
Goal differential per gameWashington Capitals +0.5Dallas Stars +0.5
Goals forWashington Capitals 3.5Dallas Stars 2.9
Goals againstWashington Capitals 3.0Dallas Stars 2.4
Shots on goalWashington Capitals 28.9Dallas Stars 29.2
Shots againstWashington Capitals 26.3Dallas Stars 26.3
Shooting %Washington Capitals 12.1%Dallas Stars 9.9%
Save %Washington Capitals 89.4%Dallas Stars 91.6%
Power-play %Washington Capitals 16.1%Dallas Stars 31.3%
Penalty kill %Washington Capitals 80.0%Dallas Stars 89.7%
Faceoff %Washington Capitals 50.4%Dallas Stars 52.7%
Penalty minutesWashington Capitals 7.8Dallas Stars 7.8
HitsWashington Capitals 23.0Dallas Stars 24.2
Blocked shotsWashington Capitals 13.1Dallas Stars 13.6
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Capitals 1–3
Stars
Goals a gameGoals
3.8
WSH 1.3 · DAL 2.5
Over 5.5 goalsOver 5.5
0 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 4
All decided in regulation
- Jan 7, 2026: Washington Capitals 1, Dallas Stars 4.
- Oct 28, 2025: Dallas Stars 1, Washington Capitals 0.
- Dec 16, 2024: Dallas Stars 3, Washington Capitals 1.
- Oct 17, 2024: Washington Capitals 3, Dallas Stars 2.
Last five games
Capitals
3-2-0 - Loss, 1–5 against Minnesota Wild, Nov 1. Odds: Capitals 2.45, Wild 2.35.
- Win, 4–3 at Nashville Predators, Oct 29. Odds: Predators 2.42, Capitals 2.43.
- Win, 5–2 against Philadelphia Flyers, Oct 28. Odds: Capitals 1.62, Flyers 4.25.
- Win, 4–3 against Buffalo Sabres, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Capitals 2.20, Sabres 2.60.
- Loss, 2–5 against Los Angeles Kings, Oct 20. Odds: Capitals 1.98, Kings 3.15.
Stars
3-2-0 - Win, 3–1 against Columbus Blue Jackets, Oct 31. Odds: Stars 1.91, Blue Jackets 3.38.
- Loss, 2–5 against Montreal Canadiens, Oct 29. Odds: Stars 1.96, Canadiens 3.19.
- Loss, 1–5 against New Jersey Devils, Oct 27. Odds: Stars 2.25, Devils 2.65.
- Win, 6–3 against New York Islanders, Oct 25. Odds: Stars 1.93, Islanders 3.34.
- Win, 3–2 against Winnipeg Jets, after overtime, Oct 22. Odds: Stars 1.70, Jets 4.00.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-1
- 08:56 Goal Dallas Stars: Kiviranta J. assists: Faksa R., Harley T. 0-1
- 13:34 2 min Dallas Stars: Harley T. Tripping
- 18:54 2 min Washington Capitals: Wilson T. Roughing
2nd period3-4
- 00:23 Goal PPG Dallas Stars: Robertson J. assists: Johnston W., Hintz R. 0-2
- 03:18 Goal Dallas Stars: Robertson J. assists: Hyry A., Myers T. 0-3
- 05:43 Goal Dallas Stars: Robertson J. assists: Harley T., Hintz R. 0-4
- 05:43 Goalie change Washington Capitals: Lindgren C. replaces Thompson L.
- 07:34 2 min Washington Capitals: — Too many men on the ice
- 09:30 2 min Dallas Stars: — Too many men on the ice
- 11:00 Goal PPG Washington Capitals: Kyrou J. assists: Strome D., Hutson C. 1-4
- 14:50 Goal Dallas Stars: Rantanen M. assists: Johnston W., Benn Ja. 1-5
- 16:58 Goal Washington Capitals: Jenner B. assists: Leonard R., Fehervary M. 2-5
- 18:20 2 min Dallas Stars: Bichsel L. Holding
- 19:30 Goal PPG Washington Capitals: Chychrun J. assists: Strome D., Kyrou J. 3-5
3rd period2-1
- 01:23 Goal Dallas Stars: Hintz R. assists: Lindell E., Robertson J. 3-6
- 12:55 Goal Washington Capitals: Sourdif J. assists: Beauvillier A., Protas I. 4-6
- 18:58 Goal Washington Capitals: Leonard R. assists: Kyrou J., Chychrun J. 5-6
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- In goal: Thompson L. for Washington Capitals (6-4-0 in the last 10 starts), Oettinger J. for Dallas Stars (7-2-1 in the last 10 starts).
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Dallas Stars.
- 3.8 goals per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the total is 5.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (WSH) | 2.30 | 2.30 | No change |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.00 | 4.00 | No change |
| 1X2: 2 (DAL) | 2.55 | 2.55 | No change |
| Over/Under line | 5.5 | 5.5 | No change |
| Handicap WSH | −1.5 | +1.5 | Line moved |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Metropolitan Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Carolina Hurricanes |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 30 | .789 | 78 | 45 | +33 |
| 2 |  New Jersey Devils |
19 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 26 | .684 | 68 | 55 | +13 |
| 3 |  New York Rangers |
19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 21 | .553 | 56 | 55 | +1 |
| 4 | Washington Capitals |
16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 20 | .625 | 56 | 53 | +3 |
| 5 |  New York Islanders |
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .529 | 49 | 52 | −3 |
| 6 |  Philadelphia Flyers |
20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | .375 | 45 | 66 | −21 |
| 7 |  Columbus Blue Jackets |
16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 14 | .438 | 41 | 51 | −10 |
| 8 |  Pittsburgh Penguins |
18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 14 | .389 | 58 | 65 | −7 |
Regular Season · Central Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Wild |
20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 30 | .750 | 65 | 44 | +21 |
| 2 |  Colorado Avalanche |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 78 | 59 | +19 |
| 3 |  Nashville Predators |
18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 23 | .639 | 55 | 51 | +4 |
| 4 | Dallas Stars |
17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 22 | .647 | 49 | 41 | +8 |
| 5 |  Utah Mammoth |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| 6 |  Winnipeg Jets |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 53 | 65 | −12 |
| 7 |  St. Louis Blues |
18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 18 | .500 | 53 | 55 | −2 |
| 8 |  Chicago Blackhawks |
18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 9 | .250 | 39 | 76 | −37 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Washington Capitals host Dallas Stars in the NHL on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.