Washington Capitals vs Montreal Canadiens prediction
Washington Capitals 5–, Montreal Canadiens 4
FT
Puck drop 19:30 ET
1X2 odds down 2.341X2 odds up 2.65
Capital One Arena (Washington, DC) · USACapital One Arena (Washington, DC)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
WSH
2
1
2
MTL
2
1
1
56%Washington win · 44% in regulationWSH
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
44%Montreal win · 33% in regulationMTL
Chance to win · 44% and 33% in regulation
Lindgren C.StartedSV 88.5% · GAA 3.70 · 4-5-1
Dobes J.StartedSV 88.1% · GAA 3.60 · 3-4-3
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Double chance
Won
Capitals or draw
odds up 1.37
Confidence69%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2WonCapitalsodds up 2.09Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostU7.51.40Confidence 69%
- HandicapWonCanadiens +1.5odds down 1.42Confidence 66%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonCapitalsodds up 1.67Confidence 57%
- Best tip of the game: Double chanceWonCapitals or drawodds up 1.37Confidence 69%
- Draw no betWonCapitalsodds up 1.67Confidence 59%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.06Confidence 88%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostCapitalsodds up 2.50Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonO1.5odds down 1.67Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Capitals 3–2
Canadiens
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 9
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Washington to winTo win
56%
WSH won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min5–43%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost2–01st period2–28%chance
- Highest scoring periodLost3rd periodMost goals1st · 4 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 2-0, 0-0, 1-2
- Likeliest 3-2 (3%), 4-3 (2%), 2-1 (2%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Washington Capitals
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals
Montreal Canadiens
Season recordWashington Capitals 3-3-0Montreal Canadiens 3-2-1
Home / road splitWashington Capitals 2-1-0Montreal Canadiens 1-0-1
StreakWashington Capitals L2Montreal Canadiens W2
RestWashington Capitals Back-to-backMontreal Canadiens Back-to-back
Goals forWashington Capitals 3.2Montreal Canadiens 3.2
Goals againstWashington Capitals 3.0Montreal Canadiens 3.7
In the standingsWashington Capitals 9thMontreal Canadiens 3rd
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameWashington Capitals +1.2Montreal Canadiens −1.6
Goals forWashington Capitals 3.4Montreal Canadiens 2.2
Goals againstWashington Capitals 2.2Montreal Canadiens 3.8
Shots on goalWashington Capitals 26.0Montreal Canadiens 23.7
Shots againstWashington Capitals 26.0Montreal Canadiens 29.1
Shooting %Washington Capitals 13.1%Montreal Canadiens 9.3%
Save %Washington Capitals 92.3%Montreal Canadiens 88.7%
Power-play %Washington Capitals 12.9%Montreal Canadiens 9.8%
Penalty kill %Washington Capitals 91.9%Montreal Canadiens 86.8%
Faceoff %Washington Capitals 50.0%Montreal Canadiens 52.6%
Penalty minutesWashington Capitals 8.5Montreal Canadiens 13.0
HitsWashington Capitals 19.9Montreal Canadiens 22.0
Blocked shotsWashington Capitals 13.5Montreal Canadiens 15.7
Per game · WSH at home, MTL away
Goal differential per gameWashington Capitals +1.4Montreal Canadiens +0.5
Goals forWashington Capitals 3.6Montreal Canadiens 3.5
Goals againstWashington Capitals 2.2Montreal Canadiens 3.0
Shots on goalWashington Capitals 26.6Montreal Canadiens 22.3
Shots againstWashington Capitals 29.0Montreal Canadiens 29.0
Shooting %Washington Capitals 13.5%Montreal Canadiens 15.7%
Save %Washington Capitals 92.4%Montreal Canadiens 90.0%
Power-play %Washington Capitals 16.1%Montreal Canadiens 14.7%
Penalty kill %Washington Capitals 97.2%Montreal Canadiens 85.0%
Faceoff %Washington Capitals 46.8%Montreal Canadiens 54.6%
Penalty minutesWashington Capitals 8.0Montreal Canadiens 9.6
HitsWashington Capitals 21.2Montreal Canadiens 24.0
Blocked shotsWashington Capitals 11.5Montreal Canadiens 14.1
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Capitals 4–1
Canadiens
Goals a gameGoals
7.4
WSH 4.4 · MTL 3.0
Over 6.5 goalsOver 6.5
3 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
1 of 5
1 in overtime
- Feb 28, 2026: Montreal Canadiens 6, Washington Capitals 2.
- Jan 13, 2026: Washington Capitals 3, Montreal Canadiens 2, after overtime.
- Nov 20, 2025: Montreal Canadiens 4, Washington Capitals 8.
- Apr 30, 2025: Washington Capitals 4, Montreal Canadiens 1.
- Apr 27, 2025: Montreal Canadiens 2, Washington Capitals 5.
Last five games
Capitals
2-3-0 - Loss, 2–4 at Carolina Hurricanes, Oct 13. Odds: Hurricanes 2.06, Capitals 3.12.
- Loss, 3–5 against Seattle Kraken, Oct 11. Odds: Capitals 1.81, Kraken 3.76.
- Win, 3–1 against New York Rangers, Oct 9. Odds: Capitals 2.12, Rangers 2.90.
- Win, 5–3 against Pittsburgh Penguins, Oct 7.
- Loss, 1–3 at Tampa Bay Lightning, Oct 3.
Canadiens
2-2-1 - Win, 4–3 against Buffalo Sabres, after a shootout, Oct 13. Odds: Canadiens 2.06, Sabres 3.09.
- Win, 1–0 against Detroit Red Wings, after a shootout, Oct 10. Odds: Canadiens 1.95, Red Wings 3.05.
- Loss, 2–5 against Nashville Predators, Oct 8.
- Loss, 4–6 against Carolina Hurricanes, Oct 6.
- Overtime loss, 5–6 at Pittsburgh Penguins, after overtime, Oct 3.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period2-2
- 04:29 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Anderson J. assists: Newhook A. 0-1
- 05:54 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Caufield C. Interference
- 07:56 Goal Washington Capitals: Kyrou J. assists: Hutson C., Tuch A. 1-1
- 11:15 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Hutson L. assists: Bolduc Z., Dobson N. 1-2
- 12:59 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Carrier A. Tripping
- 12:59 2 min Washington Capitals: Desharnais V. Roughing
- 17:46 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Hutson L. Holding
- 19:34 Goal PPG Washington Capitals: Miroshnichenko I. assists: Protas I., Kyrou J. 2-2
2nd period1-1
- 04:34 2 min Washington Capitals: Sourdif J. Tripping
- 06:16 Goal SHG Washington Capitals: Tuch A. 3-2
- 07:36 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Anderson J. Holding
- 12:58 Goal Montreal Canadiens: Anderson J. assists: Newhook A. 3-3
- 15:42 2 min Washington Capitals: Miroshnichenko I. Roughing
- 15:42 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Carrier A. Roughing
- 15:42 2 min Montreal Canadiens: Guhle K. Roughing
3rd period2-1
- 12:29 Goal Washington Capitals: Holl J. assists: Protas I., Ovechkin A. 4-3
- 17:05 Goal Washington Capitals: Tuch A. 5-3
- 17:57 2 min Washington Capitals: Strome D. Slashing
- 18:21 Goal PPG Montreal Canadiens: Suzuki N. assists: Hutson L. 5-4
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for both teams — Washington Capitals and Montreal Canadiens played yesterday.
- In goal: Lindgren C. for Washington Capitals (4-5-1 in the last 10 starts), Dobes J. for Montreal Canadiens (3-4-3 in the last 10 starts).
- Goal differential gap of 2.8 per game — Washington Capitals +1.2, Montreal Canadiens −1.6 over their recent games.
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Washington Capitals.
- Save % gap: Washington Capitals 92.3%, Montreal Canadiens 88.7% over their recent games.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (WSH) | 2.37 | 2.34 | Shortened |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.19 | 4.17 | Shortened |
| 1X2: 2 (MTL) | 2.61 | 2.65 | Drifted |
| Over/Under line | 6.5 | 6.5 | No change |
| Handicap WSH | −1.5 | −1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Carolina Hurricanes |
19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 30 | .789 | 78 | 45 | +33 |
| 2 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 3 | Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 4 |  New Jersey Devils |
19 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 26 | .684 | 68 | 55 | +13 |
| 5 |  Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 6 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 7 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 8 |  New York Rangers |
19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 21 | .553 | 56 | 55 | +1 |
| 9 | Washington Capitals |
16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 20 | .625 | 56 | 53 | +3 |
| 10 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 11 |  New York Islanders |
17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 18 | .529 | 49 | 52 | −3 |
| 12 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 13 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
| 14 |  Philadelphia Flyers |
20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 15 | .375 | 45 | 66 | −21 |
| 15 |  Columbus Blue Jackets |
16 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 14 | .438 | 41 | 51 | −10 |
| 16 |  Pittsburgh Penguins |
18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 14 | .389 | 58 | 65 | −7 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Washington Capitals host Montreal Canadiens in the NHL on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.