Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction
Winnipeg Jets 4–, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
FT
Puck drop 18:00 ET
1X2 odds up 3.251X2 odds down 1.91
Canada Life Centre (Winnipeg, MB) · USACanada Life Centre (Winnipeg, MB)
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
WPG
0
2
2
TBL
0
0
3
45%Winnipeg win · 35% in regulationWPG
Overtime or shootout · 23%OT / SO 23%
55%Tampa Bay win · 42% in regulationTBL
Chance to win · 35% and 42% in regulation
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Handicap
Won
Jets +1.5
odds up 1.45
Confidence66%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%Full game
- 1X2LostLightningodds down 2.09Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderWonO4.5odds down 1.34Confidence 70%
- Best tip of the game: HandicapWonJets +1.5odds up 1.45Confidence 66%
- Winner (incl. OT)LostLightning1.66Confidence 56%
- Double chanceLostLightning or drawodds up 1.34Confidence 68%
- Draw no betLostLightningodds down 1.66Confidence 57%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.07Confidence 89%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostLightning2.55Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostO1.5odds up 1.70Confidence 55%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Jets 2–3
Lightning
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 7
Draw after 60 minDraw
23%
Decided in regulation
Tampa Bay to winTo win
55%
WPG won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost2–3After 60 min4–33%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–21st period0–07%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon3rd periodMost goals3rd · 5 goals30%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 2-3
- By period 0-2, 0-0, 2-1
- Likeliest 2-3 (3%), 3-4 (2%), 4-5 (1%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Winnipeg Jets
Tampa Bay Lightning
Winnipeg Jets
Tampa Bay Lightning
Season recordWinnipeg Jets 6-8-3Tampa Bay Lightning 11-3-2
Home / road splitWinnipeg Jets 3-4-1Tampa Bay Lightning 3-3-2
StreakWinnipeg Jets W2Tampa Bay Lightning W3
RestWinnipeg Jets 2 daysTampa Bay Lightning Back-to-back
Goals forWinnipeg Jets 2.6Tampa Bay Lightning 3.8
Goals againstWinnipeg Jets 3.5Tampa Bay Lightning 3.1
In the standingsWinnipeg Jets 6thTampa Bay Lightning 3rd
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameWinnipeg Jets −1.5Tampa Bay Lightning +0.7
Goals forWinnipeg Jets 2.4Tampa Bay Lightning 4.0
Goals againstWinnipeg Jets 3.9Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3
Shots on goalWinnipeg Jets 28.3Tampa Bay Lightning 30.1
Shots againstWinnipeg Jets 29.6Tampa Bay Lightning 24.8
Shooting %Winnipeg Jets 8.5%Tampa Bay Lightning 13.3%
Save %Winnipeg Jets 87.5%Tampa Bay Lightning 87.5%
Power-play %Winnipeg Jets 7.9%Tampa Bay Lightning 18.9%
Penalty kill %Winnipeg Jets 66.7%Tampa Bay Lightning 82.4%
Faceoff %Winnipeg Jets 46.6%Tampa Bay Lightning 50.1%
Penalty minutesWinnipeg Jets 8.7Tampa Bay Lightning 7.4
HitsWinnipeg Jets 26.4Tampa Bay Lightning 20.6
Blocked shotsWinnipeg Jets 13.6Tampa Bay Lightning 15.3
Per game · WPG at home, TBL away
Goal differential per gameWinnipeg Jets −1.4Tampa Bay Lightning −0.4
Goals forWinnipeg Jets 2.4Tampa Bay Lightning 3.0
Goals againstWinnipeg Jets 3.8Tampa Bay Lightning 3.4
Shots on goalWinnipeg Jets 26.2Tampa Bay Lightning 25.7
Shots againstWinnipeg Jets 26.5Tampa Bay Lightning 26.4
Shooting %Winnipeg Jets 9.2%Tampa Bay Lightning 11.7%
Save %Winnipeg Jets 86.0%Tampa Bay Lightning 88.3%
Power-play %Winnipeg Jets 8.8%Tampa Bay Lightning 10.7%
Penalty kill %Winnipeg Jets 75.0%Tampa Bay Lightning 86.7%
Faceoff %Winnipeg Jets 47.3%Tampa Bay Lightning 47.1%
Penalty minutesWinnipeg Jets 5.6Tampa Bay Lightning 9.6
HitsWinnipeg Jets 21.5Tampa Bay Lightning 24.9
Blocked shotsWinnipeg Jets 13.8Tampa Bay Lightning 17.4
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Jets 2–3
Lightning
Goals a gameGoals
7.2
WPG 3.4 · TBL 3.8
Over 6.0 goalsOver 6.0
2 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 5
All decided in regulation
- Oct 29, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Winnipeg Jets 4.
- Mar 5, 2026: Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1.
- Jan 29, 2026: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Winnipeg Jets 1.
- Nov 14, 2024: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Winnipeg Jets 1.
- Nov 3, 2024: Winnipeg Jets 7, Tampa Bay Lightning 4.
Last five games
Jets
2-3-0 - Win, 6–2 against Vancouver Canucks, Nov 5. Odds: Jets 1.67, Canucks 3.90.
- Win, 5–4 at Montreal Canadiens, after overtime, Nov 3. Odds: Canadiens 1.83, Jets 3.45.
- Loss, 0–7 at Carolina Hurricanes, Nov 1. Odds: Hurricanes 1.51, Jets 4.90.
- Loss, 2–5 at Florida Panthers, Oct 30. Odds: Panthers 1.65, Jets 4.10.
- Loss, 4–6 at Tampa Bay Lightning, Oct 29. Odds: Lightning 1.67, Jets 3.90.
Lightning
4-0-1 - Win, 4–3 at Minnesota Wild, after overtime, Nov 7. Odds: Wild 2.85, Lightning 2.05.
- Win, 4–1 against Chicago Blackhawks, Nov 5. Odds: Lightning 1.30, Blackhawks 7.50.
- Win, 4–2 against Detroit Red Wings, Nov 3. Odds: Lightning 1.50, Red Wings 4.90.
- Overtime loss, 4–5 at Nashville Predators, after a shootout, Oct 31. Odds: Predators 3.30, Lightning 1.86.
- Win, 6–4 against Winnipeg Jets, Oct 29. Odds: Lightning 1.67, Jets 3.90.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-0
- 04:15 2 min Winnipeg Jets: DeMelo D. Cross checking
- 15:36 2 min Winnipeg Jets: Fleury H. High sticking
2nd period2-0
- 00:28 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Crozier M. Holding
- 01:53 Goal PPG Winnipeg Jets: Perfetti C. assists: Scheifele M., Fleury H. 1-0
- 10:28 2 min Winnipeg Jets: Ferraro M. Slashing
- 12:38 Goal Winnipeg Jets: Barron M. assists: Pionk N., Bjorck V. 2-0
- 18:17 2 min Winnipeg Jets: DeMelo D. Tripping
3rd period2-3
- 06:19 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Holmberg P. High sticking
- 08:10 Goal PPG Winnipeg Jets: Yager B. assists: Bjorck V., Iafallo A. 3-0
- 10:22 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Hagel B. assists: Cirelli A. 3-1
- 14:01 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Holmberg P. assists: Cernak E., Girgensons Z. 3-2
- 14:27 Goal Tampa Bay Lightning: Holmberg P. assists: Cernak E., Mikheyev I. 3-3
- 18:15 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Gourde Y. Tripping
- 19:07 2 min Tampa Bay Lightning: Cernak E. Delay of game
- 19:58 Goal PPG Winnipeg Jets: Scheifele M. assists: Perfetti C., Vilardi G. 4-3
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Second game in two days for Tampa Bay Lightning, who played yesterday.
- 3-game winning streak for Tampa Bay Lightning coming into this game.
- Goal differential gap of 2.2 per game — Winnipeg Jets −1.5, Tampa Bay Lightning +0.7 over their recent games.
- 3-2 in the last 5 meetings for Tampa Bay Lightning.
- 7.2 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 6.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (WPG) | 3.10 | 3.25 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.20 | 4.25 | Drifted |
| 1X2: 2 (TBL) | 1.96 | 1.91 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 6 | 6 | No change |
| Handicap WPG | +1.5 | +1.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
NHL standings
Regular Season · Central Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minnesota Wild |
20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 30 | .750 | 65 | 44 | +21 |
| 2 |  Colorado Avalanche |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 78 | 59 | +19 |
| 3 |  Nashville Predators |
18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 23 | .639 | 55 | 51 | +4 |
| 4 |  Dallas Stars |
17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 22 | .647 | 49 | 41 | +8 |
| 5 |  Utah Mammoth |
18 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 21 | .583 | 63 | 63 | 0 |
| 6 | Winnipeg Jets |
19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 19 | .500 | 53 | 65 | −12 |
| 7 |  St. Louis Blues |
18 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 18 | .500 | 53 | 55 | −2 |
| 8 |  Chicago Blackhawks |
18 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 9 | .250 | 39 | 76 | −37 |
Regular Season · Atlantic Division
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston Bruins |
18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 27 | .750 | 68 | 41 | +27 |
| 2 |  Montreal Canadiens |
18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | .722 | 62 | 55 | +7 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 24 | .706 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 4 |  Ottawa Senators |
19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 24 | .632 | 60 | 57 | +3 |
| 5 |  Florida Panthers |
19 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 22 | .579 | 60 | 56 | +4 |
| 6 |  Buffalo Sabres |
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 19 | .559 | 50 | 57 | −7 |
| 7 |  Toronto Maple Leafs |
20 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 18 | .450 | 67 | 70 | −3 |
| 8 |  Detroit Red Wings |
19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 17 | .447 | 51 | 59 | −8 |
- Playoffs
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Winnipeg Jets host Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on Sunday, November 8, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.