Chelmet Chelyabinsk vs HC Norilsk Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Won

U6.5 1.27

Confidence72%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%

Full game

1X2WonNorilskodds down 2.55Confidence 51%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonU6.5odds down 1.27Confidence 72%
HandicapWonChelmet +1.5Confidence 66%
Winner (incl. OT)WonNorilskodds down 1.95Confidence 61%
Double chanceWonNorilsk or drawodds down 1.21Confidence 71%
Draw no betWonNorilskodds down 1.33Confidence 63%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.15Confidence 83%

1st period

1st period 1X2WonDrawodds up 2.48Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonU1.5odds down 1.69Confidence 57%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Chelmet 12

Norilsk

Final 1–2

Total goalsTotal 3 Actual 3

Draw after 60 minDraw 23% Decided in regulation

NOR to winTo win 59% NOR won

Score details

Correct scoreWon1–2After 60 min1–25%chance
1st period correct scoreWon0–01st period0–023%chance
Highest scoring periodLost2nd periodMost goals3rd · 2 goals28%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 1-2
By period 0-0, 1-1, 0-1
Likeliest 1-2 (5%), 2-3 (4%)

Team stats

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 17+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record3-8-210-5-2

Home / road split1-1-13-3-0

StreakL4W1

Rest6 days1 day

Goals for1.82.4

Goals against4.12.2

In the standings27th—

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game−2.0−0.1

Goals for2.12.5

Goals against4.12.6

Shots on goal29.230.6

Shots against27.828.9

Shooting %7.2%8.2%

Save %85.6%91.3%

Power-play %16.1%29.0%

Penalty kill %80.5%72.0%

Faceoff %53.2%50.4%

Penalty minutes9.75.8

Blocked shots15.48.3

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Last five games

Chelmet 1-4-0

Loss, 1–5 at Kaluga, Oct 16. Odds: Kaluga 2.02, Chelmet 2.95.
Loss, 2–4 at AKM, Oct 14. Odds: AKM 1.69, Chelmet 3.60.
Loss, 0–8 at Ryazan, Oct 12. Odds: Ryazan 2.08, Chelmet 2.75.
Loss, 3–4 against Bars, Oct 4.
Win, 4–2 against Almetyevsk, Oct 2.

Norilsk 4-1-0

Win, 3–2 at Magnitka Magnitogorsk, after overtime, Oct 21. Odds: Magnitka 2.16, Norilsk 3.00.
Loss, 2–3 at Orsk, Oct 19. Odds: Orsk 2.32, Norilsk 2.75.
Win, 3–1 against Perm, Oct 12. Odds: Norilsk 2.50, Perm 2.28.
Win, 5–3 against Toros Neftekamsk, Oct 10. Odds: Norilsk 2.30, Toros 2.52.
Win, 3–2 against Izhevsk, Oct 8.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period0-0

No goals or penalties.

2nd period0-1

03:11 Goal HC Norilsk: Drugalya S. assists: Sinitsky I., Shalagin M. 0-1

3rd period1-1

09:40 Goal Chelmet Chelyabinsk: Zinovyev I. assists: Aglamzyanov R. 1-1
18:03 Goal HC Norilsk: Zlodeyev D. assists: Shalagin M. 1-2

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

4-game losing streak for Chelmet Chelyabinsk coming into this game.
Odds moved: the odds on HC Norilsk dropped from 1.95 to 1.38 since they were first published.
Rest advantage: 6 days off for Chelmet Chelyabinsk, 1 for HC Norilsk.
In goal: Utenkov D. for Chelmet Chelyabinsk (4-4-2 in the last 10 starts), Guskov Y. for HC Norilsk (4-4-2 in the last 10 starts).
Goal differential gap of 1.9 per game — Chelmet Chelyabinsk −2.0, HC Norilsk −0.1 over their recent games.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (CHE)	2.55	2.55	No change
1X2: X (draw)	4.00	4.00	No change
1X2: 2 (NOR)	2.33	2.33	No change
Over/Under line	5.5	5	Line lowered

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

VHL standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Omskie Krylia	21	18	3	0	36	.857	56	27	+29
2	AKM	23	14	4	5	33	.717	70	51	+19
3	HC Norilsk	23	15	5	3	33	.717	59	50	+9
4	Almetyevsk	21	16	5	0	32	.762	57	41	+16
5	Perm	22	15	6	1	31	.705	61	38	+23
6	Toros Neftekamsk	23	14	6	3	31	.674	63	53	+10
7	SKA-VMF St. Petersburg	20	15	4	1	31	.775	55	26	+29
8	Metallurg Novokuznetsk	24	14	7	3	31	.646	57	38	+19
9	HC Yugra	22	14	7	1	29	.659	55	37	+18
10	Orsk	20	11	2	7	29	.725	56	46	+10
11	Kaluga	23	12	6	5	29	.630	49	41	+8
12	Khimik	21	12	5	4	28	.667	74	50	+24
13	Kristall Saratov	20	12	6	2	26	.650	51	58	−7
14	Buran Voronezh	20	12	6	2	26	.650	44	37	+7
15	Ryazan	23	10	9	4	24	.522	48	53	−5
16	Tambov	20	11	7	2	24	.600	53	52	+1
17	Gornyak	20	10	7	3	23	.575	51	47	+4
18	Bars	21	10	10	1	21	.500	46	61	−15
19	Dinamo St. Petersburg	21	9	9	3	21	.500	54	62	−8
20	Olympia	22	10	11	1	21	.477	58	61	−3
21	Rubin Tyumen	22	9	10	3	21	.477	51	64	−13
22	Dyn. Altay	22	9	11	2	20	.455	45	58	−13
23	Magnitka Magnitogorsk	20	7	7	6	20	.500	37	40	−3
24	Krasnoyarsk	23	9	13	1	19	.413	41	57	−16
25	Dizel	21	6	11	4	16	.381	43	59	−16
26	Zvezda Moscow	21	7	13	1	15	.357	49	69	−20
27	Chelmet Chelyabinsk	21	6	13	2	14	.333	41	71	−30
28	Kurgan	21	5	12	4	14	.333	37	63	−26
29	Izhevsk	22	6	14	2	14	.318	47	67	−20
30	CSK VVS	21	4	14	3	11	.262	39	70	−31

Playoffs: 1/8-finals

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Chelmet Chelyabinsk vs HC Norilsk prediction

All predictions

Full game

1st period

Predicted final score

Score details