Gornyak vs Metallurg Novokuznetsk prediction
Gornyak 3–, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 4
AP
Puck drop 09:30 ET
1X2 odds up 3.141X2 odds down 2.08
RussiaRussia
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
OT
SO
GOR
0
2
1
0
2
MET
1
1
1
0
3
42%Gornyak win · 30% in regulationGOR
Overtime or shootout · 25%OT / SO 25%
58%Metallurg Novokuznetsk win · 45% in regulationMET
Chance to win · 30% and 45% in regulation
Kapustin K.Started1-7-2
Lozebnikov D.StartedSV 95.1% · GAA 0.90 · 6-1-3
Best tip of the gameBest tip
Double chance
Won
Novokuznetsk or draw
odds down 1.35
Confidence71%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%Full game
- 1X2LostNovokuznetskodds down 2.10Confidence 51%
- Over/UnderLostU5.5odds down 1.33Confidence 71%
- HandicapWonGornyak +1.5Confidence 68%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonNovokuznetskodds down 1.56Confidence 61%
- Best tip of the game: Double chanceWonNovokuznetsk or drawodds down 1.35Confidence 71%
- Draw no betPushNovokuznetsk1.51Confidence 62%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.19Confidence 81%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostDrawodds down 2.30Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderWonU1.5odds down 1.49Confidence 64%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.Gornyak 1–2
Novokuznetsk
Total goalsTotal
3
Actual 7
Draw after 60 minDraw
25%
Went to a shootout
MET to winTo win
58%
MET won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost1–2After 60 min3–36%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost0–01st period0–128%chance
- Highest scoring periodWon2nd periodMost goals2nd · 3 goals27%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 1-2
- By period 0-0, 1-1, 0-1
- Likeliest 1-2 (6%), 2-3 (4%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 20+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Gornyak
Metallurg Novokuznetsk
Gornyak
Metallurg Novokuznetsk
Season recordGornyak 8-6-1Metallurg Novokuznetsk 11-5-3
Home / road splitGornyak 2-3-1Metallurg Novokuznetsk 6-3-1
StreakGornyak L2Metallurg Novokuznetsk W2
RestGornyak 1 dayMetallurg Novokuznetsk 1 day
Goals forGornyak 2.4Metallurg Novokuznetsk 1.9
Goals againstGornyak 2.2Metallurg Novokuznetsk 1.2
In the standingsGornyak 17thMetallurg Novokuznetsk 8th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameGornyak −0.2Metallurg Novokuznetsk +0.5
Goals forGornyak 2.2Metallurg Novokuznetsk 1.7
Goals againstGornyak 2.4Metallurg Novokuznetsk 1.2
Shots on goalGornyak 27.6Metallurg Novokuznetsk 28.5
Shots againstGornyak 25.6Metallurg Novokuznetsk 22.0
Shooting %Gornyak 8.0%Metallurg Novokuznetsk 6.0%
Save %Gornyak 91.0%Metallurg Novokuznetsk 94.5%
Power-play %Gornyak 4.0%Metallurg Novokuznetsk 16.1%
Penalty kill %Gornyak 78.6%Metallurg Novokuznetsk 96.6%
Faceoff %Gornyak 50.2%Metallurg Novokuznetsk 48.1%
Penalty minutesGornyak 7.1Metallurg Novokuznetsk 6.1
Blocked shotsGornyak 13.6Metallurg Novokuznetsk 13.2
Per game · GOR at home, MET away
Goal differential per gameGornyak −0.5Metallurg Novokuznetsk +0.9
Goals forGornyak 2.2Metallurg Novokuznetsk 1.7
Goals againstGornyak 2.7Metallurg Novokuznetsk 0.8
Shots on goalGornyak 26.9Metallurg Novokuznetsk 27.2
Shots againstGornyak 27.5Metallurg Novokuznetsk 22.0
Shooting %Gornyak 8.2%Metallurg Novokuznetsk 6.3%
Save %Gornyak 90.2%Metallurg Novokuznetsk 96.4%
Power-play %Gornyak 12.9%Metallurg Novokuznetsk 23.1%
Penalty kill %Gornyak 76.9%Metallurg Novokuznetsk 100.0%
Faceoff %Gornyak 50.8%Metallurg Novokuznetsk 47.4%
Penalty minutesGornyak 5.2Metallurg Novokuznetsk 4.2
Blocked shotsGornyak 16.8Metallurg Novokuznetsk 12.1
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Gornyak 1–4
Novokuznetsk
Goals a gameGoals
5.0
GOR 1.6 · MET 3.4
Over 4.5 goalsOver 4.5
3 of 5
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
0 of 5
All decided in regulation
- Apr 19, 2026: Metallurg Novokuznetsk 5, Gornyak 0.
- Apr 16, 2026: Gornyak 4, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 7.
- Apr 14, 2026: Gornyak 3, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 2.
- Apr 11, 2026: Metallurg Novokuznetsk 1, Gornyak 0.
- Apr 9, 2026: Metallurg Novokuznetsk 2, Gornyak 1.
Last five games
Gornyak
1-4-0 - Loss, 0–3 against Krasnoyarsk, Oct 27. Odds: Gornyak 1.72, Krasnoyarsk 4.06.
- Loss, 0–2 against HC Norilsk, Oct 25. Odds: Gornyak 1.97, Norilsk 3.32.
- Win, 3–1 at Kaluga, Oct 18. Odds: Kaluga 2.24, Gornyak 2.90.
- Loss, 1–4 at AKM, Oct 16. Odds: AKM 1.92, Gornyak 3.00.
- Loss, 3–5 at Ryazan, Oct 14. Odds: Ryazan 2.55, Gornyak 2.26.
Novokuznetsk
3-2-0 - Win, 3–1 at Chelmet Chelyabinsk, Oct 27. Odds: Chelmet 4.29, Novokuznetsk 1.66.
- Win, 3–0 at Magnitka Magnitogorsk, Oct 25. Odds: Magnitka 3.65, Novokuznetsk 1.89.
- Loss, 1–2 at Orsk, Oct 23. Odds: Orsk 3.00, Novokuznetsk 2.12.
- Loss, 0–2 against Perm, Oct 17. Odds: Novokuznetsk 1.81, Perm 3.93.
- Win, 3–2 against Toros Neftekamsk, after a shootout, Oct 15. Odds: Novokuznetsk 1.58, Toros 4.20.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-1
- 05:26 Goal Metallurg Novokuznetsk: Ospanov R. assists: Galimov E. 0-1
2nd period2-1
- 00:40 Goal Metallurg Novokuznetsk: Sheshin D. assists: Serdyuk Y. 0-2
- 01:40 Goal Gornyak: Sushchev V. assists: Dumchenko N., Molodtsov D. 1-2
- 16:08 Goal Gornyak: Lukhovskoy N. assists: Miller N. 2-2
3rd period1-1
- 15:18 Goal Metallurg Novokuznetsk: Spiridonov Y. assists: Galimov E., Belov D. 2-3
- 15:45 Goal Gornyak: Velikov M. assists: Demidovich V., Alexeyev Y. 3-3
Overtime0-0
No goals or penalties.
Shootout2-3
-
Round 1
Velikov M.
✗missed
Apalkov D.
✓scored
-
Round 2
Borisov S.
✗missed
Aliyev R.
✗missed
-
Round 3
Miller N.
✓scored
Grzheletsky M.
✗missed
-
Round 4
Alexeyev Y.
✓scored
Gerasimov S.
✗missed
-
Round 5
Zaytsev O.
✗missed
Podkorytov A.
✓scored
-
Round 6
Miller N.
✗missed
Apalkov D.
✗missed
-
Round 7
Makhrin M.
✗missed
Podkorytov A.
✓scored
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- In goal: Kapustin K. for Gornyak (1-7-2 in the last 10 starts), Lozebnikov D. for Metallurg Novokuznetsk (6-1-3 in the last 10 starts).
- 4-1 in the last 5 meetings for Metallurg Novokuznetsk.
- 1-4-0 in the last five for Gornyak.
- Save % gap: Gornyak 91.0%, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 94.5% over their recent games.
- 5.0 goals per meeting across the last 5 head-to-head games; the total is 4.5.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (GOR) | 2.85 | 3.14 | Drifted |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 3.75 | 3.70 | Shortened |
| 1X2: 2 (MET) | 2.15 | 2.08 | Shortened |
| Over/Under line | 4.5 | 4.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
VHL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omskie Krylia |
21 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 36 | .857 | 56 | 27 | +29 |
| 2 |  AKM |
23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 33 | .717 | 70 | 51 | +19 |
| 3 | HC Norilsk | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 33 | .717 | 59 | 50 | +9 |
| 4 |  Almetyevsk |
21 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 32 | .762 | 57 | 41 | +16 |
| 5 |  Perm |
22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 31 | .705 | 61 | 38 | +23 |
| 6 |  Toros Neftekamsk |
23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 31 | .674 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 7 |  SKA-VMF St. Petersburg |
20 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 31 | .775 | 55 | 26 | +29 |
| 8 | Metallurg Novokuznetsk |
24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 31 | .646 | 57 | 38 | +19 |
| 9 |  HC Yugra |
22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 29 | .659 | 55 | 37 | +18 |
| 10 |  Orsk |
20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 29 | .725 | 56 | 46 | +10 |
| 11 | Kaluga | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 29 | .630 | 49 | 41 | +8 |
| 12 |  Khimik |
21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 28 | .667 | 74 | 50 | +24 |
| 13 |  Kristall Saratov |
20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 26 | .650 | 51 | 58 | −7 |
| 14 |  Buran Voronezh |
20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 26 | .650 | 44 | 37 | +7 |
| 15 |  Ryazan |
23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 24 | .522 | 48 | 53 | −5 |
| 16 |  Tambov |
20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 24 | .600 | 53 | 52 | +1 |
| 17 | Gornyak |
20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 23 | .575 | 51 | 47 | +4 |
| 18 |  Bars |
21 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 21 | .500 | 46 | 61 | −15 |
| 19 |  Dinamo St. Petersburg |
21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 21 | .500 | 54 | 62 | −8 |
| 20 |  Olympia |
22 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 21 | .477 | 58 | 61 | −3 |
| 21 |  Rubin Tyumen |
22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 21 | .477 | 51 | 64 | −13 |
| 22 |  Dyn. Altay |
22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 20 | .455 | 45 | 58 | −13 |
| 23 |  Magnitka Magnitogorsk |
20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 | .500 | 37 | 40 | −3 |
| 24 |  Krasnoyarsk |
23 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 19 | .413 | 41 | 57 | −16 |
| 25 |  Dizel |
21 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 16 | .381 | 43 | 59 | −16 |
| 26 |  Zvezda Moscow |
21 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 15 | .357 | 49 | 69 | −20 |
| 27 |  Chelmet Chelyabinsk |
21 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 14 | .333 | 41 | 71 | −30 |
| 28 |  Kurgan |
21 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 14 | .333 | 37 | 63 | −26 |
| 29 |  Izhevsk |
22 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 14 | .318 | 47 | 67 | −20 |
| 30 |  CSK VVS |
21 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 11 | .262 | 39 | 70 | −31 |
- Playoffs: 1/8-finals
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Gornyak host Metallurg Novokuznetsk in the VHL on Thursday, October 29, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.