HC Norilsk vs Zvezda Moscow Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Won

O4.5 1.77

Confidence52%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 63%

Full game

1X2WonNorilskodds down 1.82Confidence 51%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonO4.5odds up 1.77Confidence 52%
HandicapLostZvezda Moscow +1.5Confidence 66%
Winner (incl. OT)WonNorilsk1.47Confidence 63%
Double chanceWonNorilsk or drawodds up 1.24Confidence 73%
Draw no betWonNorilsk1.42Confidence 66%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.16Confidence 82%

1st period

1st period 1X2LostDrawodds down 2.38Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderLostU1.5odds down 1.61Confidence 59%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Norilsk 32

Zvezda Moscow

Final 5–2

Total goalsTotal 5 Actual 7

Draw after 60 minDraw 23% Decided in regulation

NOR to winTo win 62% NOR won

Score details

Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min5–25%chance
1st period correct scoreLost0–01st period2–024%chance
Highest scoring periodLost2nd periodMost goals3rd · 3 goals28%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 3-2
By period 0-0, 2-1, 1-1
Likeliest 3-2 (5%), 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (1%)

Team stats

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 17+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record13-5-27-9-1

Home / road split8-2-23-4-0

StreakW4W2

Rest1 day7 days

Goals for2.52.5

Goals against2.23.1

In the standings—26th

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game+1.0−0.5

Goals for3.02.5

Goals against2.03.0

Shots on goal29.731.2

Shots against25.026.9

Shooting %10.1%8.0%

Save %92.0%89.2%

Power-play %28.6%18.8%

Penalty kill %82.4%85.7%

Faceoff %44.1%60.0%

Penalty minutes4.25.6

Blocked shots6.817.7

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Last five games

Norilsk 4-1-0

Win, 5–4 against Khimik, Oct 30. Odds: Norilsk 2.69, Khimik 2.34.
Win, 2–0 at Gornyak, Oct 25. Odds: Gornyak 1.97, Norilsk 3.32.
Win, 2–1 at Chelmet Chelyabinsk, Oct 23. Odds: Chelmet 2.55, Norilsk 2.33.
Win, 3–2 at Magnitka Magnitogorsk, after overtime, Oct 21. Odds: Magnitka 2.16, Norilsk 3.00.
Loss, 2–3 at Orsk, Oct 19. Odds: Orsk 2.32, Norilsk 2.75.

Zvezda Moscow 3-2-0

Win, 3–2 against Kaluga, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Zvezda Moscow 2.77, Kaluga 2.25.
Win, 4–3 against AKM, after overtime, Oct 22. Odds: Zvezda Moscow 2.95, AKM 2.14.
Loss, 2–3 against Ryazan, Oct 20. Odds: Zvezda Moscow 2.33, Ryazan 2.71.
Loss, 2–5 at Bars, Oct 12. Odds: Bars 2.11, Zvezda Moscow 2.70.
Win, 5–3 at Almetyevsk, Oct 10. Odds: Almetyevsk 1.65, Zvezda Moscow 4.00.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period2-0

10:33 Goal HC Norilsk: Filin F. assists: Golodnyuk S., Drugalya S. 1-0
11:41 Goal PPG HC Norilsk: Shalagin M. assists: Drugalya S., Golodnyuk S. 2-0

2nd period2-0

03:35 Goal HC Norilsk: Shalagin M. assists: Avramenko I., Drugalya S. 3-0
17:33 Goal HC Norilsk: Avramenko I. assists: Shalagin M., Zlodeyev D. 4-0

3rd period1-2

01:39 Goal Zvezda Moscow: Tochilkin A. assists: Averochkin M., Martynov Y. 4-1
08:40 Goal Zvezda Moscow: Matveiko Y. 4-2
19:57 Goal SHG HC Norilsk: Sinyatkin S. assists: Sinitsky I. 5-2

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

4-game winning streak for HC Norilsk coming into this game.
Rest advantage: 7 days off for Zvezda Moscow, 1 for HC Norilsk.
In goal: Gluschenko R. for HC Norilsk (9-1-0 in the last 10 starts), Tabatchikov V. for Zvezda Moscow (6-4-0 in the last 10 starts).
Goal differential gap of 1.5 per game — HC Norilsk +1.0, Zvezda Moscow −0.5 over their recent games.
Save % gap: HC Norilsk 92.0%, Zvezda Moscow 89.2% over their recent games.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (NOR)	2.02	2.02	No change
1X2: X (draw)	3.80	3.80	No change
1X2: 2 (ZVE)	3.21	3.21	No change
Over/Under line	4.5	4.5	No change

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

VHL standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Omskie Krylia	21	18	3	0	36	.857	56	27	+29
2	AKM	23	14	4	5	33	.717	70	51	+19
3	HC Norilsk	23	15	5	3	33	.717	59	50	+9
4	Almetyevsk	21	16	5	0	32	.762	57	41	+16
5	Perm	22	15	6	1	31	.705	61	38	+23
6	Toros Neftekamsk	23	14	6	3	31	.674	63	53	+10
7	SKA-VMF St. Petersburg	20	15	4	1	31	.775	55	26	+29
8	Metallurg Novokuznetsk	24	14	7	3	31	.646	57	38	+19
9	HC Yugra	22	14	7	1	29	.659	55	37	+18
10	Orsk	20	11	2	7	29	.725	56	46	+10
11	Kaluga	23	12	6	5	29	.630	49	41	+8
12	Khimik	21	12	5	4	28	.667	74	50	+24
13	Kristall Saratov	20	12	6	2	26	.650	51	58	−7
14	Buran Voronezh	20	12	6	2	26	.650	44	37	+7
15	Ryazan	23	10	9	4	24	.522	48	53	−5
16	Tambov	20	11	7	2	24	.600	53	52	+1
17	Gornyak	20	10	7	3	23	.575	51	47	+4
18	Bars	21	10	10	1	21	.500	46	61	−15
19	Dinamo St. Petersburg	21	9	9	3	21	.500	54	62	−8
20	Olympia	22	10	11	1	21	.477	58	61	−3
21	Rubin Tyumen	22	9	10	3	21	.477	51	64	−13
22	Dyn. Altay	22	9	11	2	20	.455	45	58	−13
23	Magnitka Magnitogorsk	20	7	7	6	20	.500	37	40	−3
24	Krasnoyarsk	23	9	13	1	19	.413	41	57	−16
25	Dizel	21	6	11	4	16	.381	43	59	−16
26	Zvezda Moscow	21	7	13	1	15	.357	49	69	−20
27	Chelmet Chelyabinsk	21	6	13	2	14	.333	41	71	−30
28	Kurgan	21	5	12	4	14	.333	37	63	−26
29	Izhevsk	22	6	14	2	14	.318	47	67	−20
30	CSK VVS	21	4	14	3	11	.262	39	70	−31

Playoffs: 1/8-finals

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

HC Norilsk vs Zvezda Moscow prediction

All predictions

Full game

1st period

Predicted final score

Score details