Metallurg Novokuznetsk vs Zvezda Moscow prediction
Metallurg Novokuznetsk 6–, Zvezda Moscow 3
FT
Puck drop 07:00 ET
1X2 odds down 1.541X2 odds up 4.95
RussiaRussia
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
MET
0
4
2
ZVE
2
1
0
74%Metallurg Novokuznetsk win · 62% in regulationMET
Overtime or shootout · 20%OT / SO 20%
26%Zvezda Moscow win · 18% in regulationZVE
Chance to win · 62% and 18% in regulation
Banker of the dayBanker
Double chance
Won
Novokuznetsk or draw
odds down 1.17
Confidence94%
All predictions
9 picks graded · Average confidence 70%Full game
- 1X2WonNovokuznetskodds down 1.61Confidence 65%
- Over/UnderWonO3.5odds up 1.33Confidence 71%
- HandicapLostZvezda Moscow +1.5Confidence 57%
- Winner (incl. OT)WonNovokuznetskodds down 1.29Confidence 77%
- Banker of the day: Double chanceWonNovokuznetsk or drawodds down 1.17Confidence 94%
- Draw no betWonNovokuznetskodds down 1.24Confidence 79%
- Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYesodds up 1.20Confidence 81%
1st period
- 1st period 1X2LostNovokuznetskodds down 2.11Confidence 51%
- 1st period Over/UnderLostU1.5odds down 1.55Confidence 59%
How to read the picks
Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The banker is the day’s best bet at short odds, not its surest result. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.
Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.
Predicted final score
What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.
Novokuznetsk 3–2
Zvezda Moscow
Total goalsTotal
5
Actual 9
Draw after 60 minDraw
20%
Decided in regulation
MET to winTo win
74%
MET won
Score details
- Correct scoreLost3–2After 60 min6–35%chance
- 1st period correct scoreLost1–01st period0–222%chance
- Highest scoring periodLostTieMost goals2nd · 5 goals28%chance
Score breakdown
- After 60 minutes 3-2
- By period 1-0, 1-1, 1-1
- Likeliest 3-2 (5%), 4-3 (2%), 5-4 (0%)
Team stats
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Shots & goaltending
Special teams
Possession & hits
Built on 19+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it
Season so far
Season and recent form
Season
Metallurg Novokuznetsk
Zvezda Moscow
Metallurg Novokuznetsk
Zvezda Moscow
Season recordMetallurg Novokuznetsk 12-6-3Zvezda Moscow 7-11-1
Home / road splitMetallurg Novokuznetsk 5-3-2Zvezda Moscow 3-6-0
StreakMetallurg Novokuznetsk L1Zvezda Moscow L2
RestMetallurg Novokuznetsk 1 dayZvezda Moscow 1 day
Goals forMetallurg Novokuznetsk 2.2Zvezda Moscow 2.4
Goals againstMetallurg Novokuznetsk 1.5Zvezda Moscow 3.2
In the standingsMetallurg Novokuznetsk 8thZvezda Moscow 26th
Per game · last 10 each
Goal differential per gameMetallurg Novokuznetsk +0.5Zvezda Moscow −0.7
Goals forMetallurg Novokuznetsk 2.3Zvezda Moscow 2.5
Goals againstMetallurg Novokuznetsk 1.8Zvezda Moscow 3.2
Shots on goalMetallurg Novokuznetsk 28.5Zvezda Moscow 31.5
Shots againstMetallurg Novokuznetsk 24.7Zvezda Moscow 26.1
Shooting %Metallurg Novokuznetsk 8.1%Zvezda Moscow 7.9%
Save %Metallurg Novokuznetsk 92.7%Zvezda Moscow 88.5%
Power-play %Metallurg Novokuznetsk 17.1%Zvezda Moscow 10.3%
Penalty kill %Metallurg Novokuznetsk 93.8%Zvezda Moscow 81.5%
Faceoff %Metallurg Novokuznetsk 48.3%Zvezda Moscow 60.4%
Penalty minutesMetallurg Novokuznetsk 6.7Zvezda Moscow 5.4
Blocked shotsMetallurg Novokuznetsk 13.0Zvezda Moscow 16.9
Per game · MET at home, ZVE away
Goal differential per gameMetallurg Novokuznetsk +0.4Zvezda Moscow −1.3
Goals forMetallurg Novokuznetsk 2.3Zvezda Moscow 2.3
Goals againstMetallurg Novokuznetsk 1.9Zvezda Moscow 3.7
Shots on goalMetallurg Novokuznetsk 31.3Zvezda Moscow 32.0
Shots againstMetallurg Novokuznetsk 23.8Zvezda Moscow 25.2
Shooting %Metallurg Novokuznetsk 7.3%Zvezda Moscow 7.3%
Save %Metallurg Novokuznetsk 92.4%Zvezda Moscow 87.2%
Power-play %Metallurg Novokuznetsk 9.8%Zvezda Moscow 17.4%
Penalty kill %Metallurg Novokuznetsk 93.6%Zvezda Moscow 76.0%
Faceoff %Metallurg Novokuznetsk 54.4%Zvezda Moscow 47.7%
Penalty minutesMetallurg Novokuznetsk 10.6Zvezda Moscow 5.6
Blocked shotsMetallurg Novokuznetsk 15.4Zvezda Moscow 14.6
Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.
Head-to-head
Novokuznetsk 3–1
Zvezda Moscow
Goals a gameGoals
6.0
MET 3.8 · ZVE 2.3
Over 4.5 goalsOver 4.5
4 of 4
This game’s line
Past 60 minutesOvertime
1 of 4
1 in overtime
- Feb 11, 2026: Zvezda Moscow 2, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 3, after overtime.
- Oct 7, 2025: Metallurg Novokuznetsk 5, Zvezda Moscow 1.
- Feb 23, 2025: Zvezda Moscow 3, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 2.
- Sep 28, 2024: Metallurg Novokuznetsk 5, Zvezda Moscow 3.
Last five games
Novokuznetsk
3-2-0 - Loss, 5–6 against Khimik, Nov 4. Odds: Novokuznetsk 2.17, Khimik 2.75.
- Win, 4–3 at Gornyak, after a shootout, Oct 29. Odds: Gornyak 3.14, Novokuznetsk 2.08.
- Win, 3–1 at Chelmet Chelyabinsk, Oct 27. Odds: Chelmet 4.29, Novokuznetsk 1.66.
- Win, 3–0 at Magnitka Magnitogorsk, Oct 25. Odds: Magnitka 3.65, Novokuznetsk 1.89.
- Loss, 1–2 at Orsk, Oct 23. Odds: Orsk 3.00, Novokuznetsk 2.12.
Zvezda Moscow
2-3-0 - Loss, 1–2 at Krasnoyarsk, Nov 4. Odds: Krasnoyarsk 2.25, Zvezda Moscow 2.65.
- Loss, 2–5 at HC Norilsk, Nov 1. Odds: Norilsk 2.02, Zvezda Moscow 3.21.
- Win, 3–2 against Kaluga, after overtime, Oct 24. Odds: Zvezda Moscow 2.77, Kaluga 2.25.
- Win, 4–3 against AKM, after overtime, Oct 22. Odds: Zvezda Moscow 2.95, AKM 2.14.
- Loss, 2–3 against Ryazan, Oct 20. Odds: Zvezda Moscow 2.33, Ryazan 2.71.
Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).
Game timeline
1st period0-2
- 10:52 Goal Zvezda Moscow: Yapparov Y. assists: Yakovlev Y. 0-1
- 15:26 Goal Zvezda Moscow: Matveiko Y. assists: Averochkin M. 0-2
2nd period4-1
- 02:22 Goal Metallurg Novokuznetsk: Serdyuk Y. assists: Podkorytov A., Belov D. 1-2
- 02:49 Goal Zvezda Moscow: Martynov Y. assists: Sklokin M., Prokhorov A. 1-3
- 07:50 Goal PPG Metallurg Novokuznetsk: Galimov E. assists: Afanasyev M. 2-3
- 09:35 Goal Metallurg Novokuznetsk: Afanasyev M. assists: Spiridonov Y., Teryayev S. 3-3
- 10:59 Goal PPG Metallurg Novokuznetsk: Vasilkov A. assists: Apalkov D., Galimov E. 4-3
3rd period2-0
- 11:22 Goal PPG Metallurg Novokuznetsk: Serdyuk Y. 5-3
- 17:46 Goal Metallurg Novokuznetsk: Vasilkov A. assists: Serdyuk Y. 6-3
Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.
Key insights
- Goal differential gap of 1.2 per game — Metallurg Novokuznetsk +0.5, Zvezda Moscow −0.7 over their recent games.
- 3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Metallurg Novokuznetsk.
- Save % gap: Metallurg Novokuznetsk 92.7%, Zvezda Moscow 88.5% over their recent games.
- 6.0 goals per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the total is 4.5.
- 8th vs 26th in the VHL standings.
How the odds moved
| Market | Opening | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2: 1 (MET) | 1.62 | 1.54 | Shortened |
| 1X2: X (draw) | 4.45 | 4.65 | Drifted |
| 1X2: 2 (ZVE) | 4.44 | 4.95 | Drifted |
| Over/Under line | 4.5 | 4.5 | No change |
Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.
VHL standings
Regular Season
| # | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | P% | GF | GA | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omskie Krylia |
21 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 36 | .857 | 56 | 27 | +29 |
| 2 |  AKM |
23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 33 | .717 | 70 | 51 | +19 |
| 3 | HC Norilsk | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 33 | .717 | 59 | 50 | +9 |
| 4 |  Almetyevsk |
21 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 32 | .762 | 57 | 41 | +16 |
| 5 |  Perm |
22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 31 | .705 | 61 | 38 | +23 |
| 6 |  Toros Neftekamsk |
23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 31 | .674 | 63 | 53 | +10 |
| 7 |  SKA-VMF St. Petersburg |
20 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 31 | .775 | 55 | 26 | +29 |
| 8 | Metallurg Novokuznetsk |
24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 31 | .646 | 57 | 38 | +19 |
| 9 |  HC Yugra |
22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 29 | .659 | 55 | 37 | +18 |
| 10 |  Orsk |
20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 29 | .725 | 56 | 46 | +10 |
| 11 | Kaluga | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 29 | .630 | 49 | 41 | +8 |
| 12 |  Khimik |
21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 28 | .667 | 74 | 50 | +24 |
| 13 |  Kristall Saratov |
20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 26 | .650 | 51 | 58 | −7 |
| 14 |  Buran Voronezh |
20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 26 | .650 | 44 | 37 | +7 |
| 15 |  Ryazan |
23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 24 | .522 | 48 | 53 | −5 |
| 16 |  Tambov |
20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 24 | .600 | 53 | 52 | +1 |
| 17 |  Gornyak |
20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 23 | .575 | 51 | 47 | +4 |
| 18 |  Bars |
21 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 21 | .500 | 46 | 61 | −15 |
| 19 |  Dinamo St. Petersburg |
21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 21 | .500 | 54 | 62 | −8 |
| 20 |  Olympia |
22 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 21 | .477 | 58 | 61 | −3 |
| 21 |  Rubin Tyumen |
22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 21 | .477 | 51 | 64 | −13 |
| 22 |  Dyn. Altay |
22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 20 | .455 | 45 | 58 | −13 |
| 23 |  Magnitka Magnitogorsk |
20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 | .500 | 37 | 40 | −3 |
| 24 |  Krasnoyarsk |
23 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 19 | .413 | 41 | 57 | −16 |
| 25 |  Dizel |
21 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 16 | .381 | 43 | 59 | −16 |
| 26 | Zvezda Moscow |
21 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 15 | .357 | 49 | 69 | −20 |
| 27 |  Chelmet Chelyabinsk |
21 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 14 | .333 | 41 | 71 | −30 |
| 28 |  Kurgan |
21 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 14 | .333 | 37 | 63 | −26 |
| 29 |  Izhevsk |
22 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 14 | .318 | 47 | 67 | −20 |
| 30 |  CSK VVS |
21 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 11 | .262 | 39 | 70 | −31 |
- Playoffs: 1/8-finals
Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.
Metallurg Novokuznetsk host Zvezda Moscow in the VHL on Friday, November 6, 2026. Who wins after 60 minutes, by how many goals, and how many goals in total — our 1X2, handicap and over/under picks come from one model, and every pick is marked won or lost for everyone to see. The model uses projected goals and shots, the starting goalies, recent form, the standings and the bookmakers’ current odds.