Orsk vs Metallurg Novokuznetsk Prediction & Picks

Best tip of the gameBest tip Over/Under Won

U5.5 1.29

Confidence72%

All predictions

9 picks graded · Average confidence 64%

Full game

1X2LostNovokuznetskodds up 1.97Confidence 51%
Best tip of the game: Over/UnderWonU5.5odds down 1.29Confidence 72%
HandicapWonOrsk +1.5Confidence 70%
Winner (incl. OT)LostNovokuznetskodds up 1.56Confidence 56%
Double chanceLostNovokuznetsk or draw1.34Confidence 69%
Draw no betLostNovokuznetsk1.59Confidence 58%
Both teams to score (GG/NG)WonYes1.21Confidence 81%

1st period

1st period 1X2LostDraw2.25Confidence 51%
1st period Over/UnderWonU1.5odds down 1.47Confidence 67%

How to read the picks

Confidence is the model’s own score for a pick, out of 100. It is not a probability, but picks with higher confidence have won more often. The score details show the model’s probability instead — they are not picks.

Why some of these picks carry a lower confidence: the league is not yet proven in the model’s replay; no record yet for this market in the model’s replay.

Predicted final score

What the picks are derived from. Not a bet.

Orsk 12

Novokuznetsk

Final 2–1

Total goalsTotal 3 Actual 3

Draw after 60 minDraw 26% Decided in regulation

MET to winTo win 55% ORS won

Score details

Correct scoreLost1–2After 60 min2–16%chance
1st period correct scoreLost0–01st period0–129%chance
Highest scoring periodLost2nd periodMost goalsTie · all three27%chance

Score breakdown

After 60 minutes 1-2
By period 0-0, 1-1, 0-1
Likeliest 1-2 (6%), 2-3 (4%)

Team stats

Shots & goaltending

Special teams

Possession & hits

Built on 14+ games of full box scores a team — no betting odds in it

Season so far

Season and recent form

Season

Season record9-2-39-4-3

Home / road split4-1-24-2-1

StreakL1L1

Rest1 day5 days

Goals for2.81.9

Goals against1.91.3

In the standings10th8th

Per game · last 10 each

Goal differential per game+0.6+0.4

Goals for2.41.6

Goals against1.81.2

Shots on goal26.329.1

Shots against27.222.2

Shooting %9.1%5.5%

Save %93.4%94.6%

Power-play %18.4%12.1%

Penalty kill %86.8%96.9%

Faceoff %51.4%51.3%

Penalty minutes8.26.7

Blocked shots7.914.2

Per-game figures from the games with full stats, all competitions.

Head-to-head

Orsk 13

Novokuznetsk

Metallurg Novokuznetsk won three of the last four meetings

Goals a gameGoals 4.0 ORS 0.8 · MET 3.3

Over 4.0 goalsOver 4.0 3 of 4 This game’s line

Past 60 minutesOvertime 1 of 4 1 in a shootout

Feb 2, 2026: Metallurg Novokuznetsk 0, Orsk 1, after a shootout.
Oct 16, 2025: Orsk 0, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 5.
Mar 16, 2025: Orsk 1, Metallurg Novokuznetsk 4.
Sep 10, 2024: Metallurg Novokuznetsk 4, Orsk 1.

Last five games

Orsk 3-2-0

Loss, 1–3 against Krasnoyarsk, Oct 21. Odds: Orsk 1.91, Krasnoyarsk 3.60.
Win, 3–2 against HC Norilsk, Oct 19. Odds: Orsk 2.32, Norilsk 2.75.
Win, 2–1 at Kaluga, after a shootout, Oct 12. Odds: Kaluga 2.23, Orsk 2.60.
Loss, 0–3 at AKM, Oct 10. Odds: AKM 1.80, Orsk 3.45.
Win, 3–2 at Ryazan, after overtime, Oct 8.

Novokuznetsk 4-1-0

Loss, 0–2 against Perm, Oct 17. Odds: Novokuznetsk 1.81, Perm 3.93.
Win, 3–2 against Toros Neftekamsk, after a shootout, Oct 15. Odds: Novokuznetsk 1.58, Toros 4.20.
Win, 3–2 against Izhevsk, after a shootout, Oct 13. Odds: Novokuznetsk 1.63, Izhevsk 4.75.
Win, 2–0 against Olympia, Oct 11. Odds: Novokuznetsk 1.49, Olympia 4.75.
Win, 2–0 at Kristall Saratov, Oct 5.

Each side’s last five, every competition — W a win, L a loss, OT a loss after overtime or a shootout. Beside each team, its goals and its 1X2 odds before puck drop; the odds that came in are lit (none after overtime: the draw).

Game timeline

1st period0-1

17:16 Goal Metallurg Novokuznetsk: Medvedev P. assists: Demidov S. 0-1

2nd period1-0

13:28 Goal Orsk: Lapshin I. assists: Boychuk D., Puchkov Y. 1-1

3rd period1-0

12:38 Goal Orsk: Ugolnikov I. assists: Grebenshchikov S., Boychuk D. 2-1

Times are the minutes played in each period. PPG power-play goal, SHG short-handed goal, ENG empty-net goal, PS penalty shot. A shootout is won by one goal on the final score.

Key insights

Rest advantage: 5 days off for Metallurg Novokuznetsk, 1 for Orsk.
In goal: Nikitin V. for Orsk (5-2-3 in the last 10 starts), Lozebnikov D. for Metallurg Novokuznetsk (6-1-3 in the last 10 starts).
3-1 in the last 4 meetings for Metallurg Novokuznetsk.
4-1-0 in the last five for Metallurg Novokuznetsk.
4.0 goals per meeting across the last 4 head-to-head games; the total is 4.

How the odds moved

Market	Opening	Now	Move
1X2: 1 (ORS)	3.00	3.00	No change
1X2: X (draw)	3.82	3.82	No change
1X2: 2 (MET)	2.12	2.12	No change
Over/Under line	4.5	4	Line lowered

Opening and current odds from the bookmakers we track; the handicap line is shown from the home team’s side.

VHL standings

Regular Season

#	Team	GP	W	L	OTL	Pts	P%	GF	GA	+/−
1	Omskie Krylia	21	18	3	0	36	.857	56	27	+29
2	AKM	23	14	4	5	33	.717	70	51	+19
3	HC Norilsk	23	15	5	3	33	.717	59	50	+9
4	Almetyevsk	21	16	5	0	32	.762	57	41	+16
5	Perm	22	15	6	1	31	.705	61	38	+23
6	Toros Neftekamsk	23	14	6	3	31	.674	63	53	+10
7	SKA-VMF St. Petersburg	20	15	4	1	31	.775	55	26	+29
8	Metallurg Novokuznetsk	24	14	7	3	31	.646	57	38	+19
9	HC Yugra	22	14	7	1	29	.659	55	37	+18
10	Orsk	20	11	2	7	29	.725	56	46	+10
11	Kaluga	23	12	6	5	29	.630	49	41	+8
12	Khimik	21	12	5	4	28	.667	74	50	+24
13	Kristall Saratov	20	12	6	2	26	.650	51	58	−7
14	Buran Voronezh	20	12	6	2	26	.650	44	37	+7
15	Ryazan	23	10	9	4	24	.522	48	53	−5
16	Tambov	20	11	7	2	24	.600	53	52	+1
17	Gornyak	20	10	7	3	23	.575	51	47	+4
18	Bars	21	10	10	1	21	.500	46	61	−15
19	Dinamo St. Petersburg	21	9	9	3	21	.500	54	62	−8
20	Olympia	22	10	11	1	21	.477	58	61	−3
21	Rubin Tyumen	22	9	10	3	21	.477	51	64	−13
22	Dyn. Altay	22	9	11	2	20	.455	45	58	−13
23	Magnitka Magnitogorsk	20	7	7	6	20	.500	37	40	−3
24	Krasnoyarsk	23	9	13	1	19	.413	41	57	−16
25	Dizel	21	6	11	4	16	.381	43	59	−16
26	Zvezda Moscow	21	7	13	1	15	.357	49	69	−20
27	Chelmet Chelyabinsk	21	6	13	2	14	.333	41	71	−30
28	Kurgan	21	5	12	4	14	.333	37	63	−26
29	Izhevsk	22	6	14	2	14	.318	47	67	−20
30	CSK VVS	21	4	14	3	11	.262	39	70	−31

Playoffs: 1/8-finals

Pts points, on the league’s own system — the table is sorted by them. W/L/OTL wins, regulation losses, overtime and shootout losses · GP played · P% points share · GF/GA goals for and against · +/− difference.

Orsk vs Metallurg Novokuznetsk prediction

All predictions

Full game

1st period

Predicted final score

Score details